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  • Presentation: 2026-05-13 09:15 K3, Kåkenhus, NorrköpingOrder onlineBuy this publication >>
    Hjorth, Samuel
    Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
    Planning and Decision Support for Construction Transport in Urban Settings: Collaborative Approaches and Data-Driven Methods2026Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Construction is a transport reliant sector accounting for a large share of urban freight transport in European cities. Traditionally, construction planners have focused on on-site efficiency, often neglecting logistics to and from the site. Additionally, urban planners focus on the current and future city structure, neglecting the transitional phase during construction. Traffic planners in the municipality tend to solve temporary traffic management plans ad-hoc, only looking at one construction site at one specific time and space, instead of looking at how multiple temporary traffic management plans affect the urban area. Thus, creating a planning gap for how we get from the current city structure to the future city structure.

    The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how traffic simulation and machine learning can support collaborative planning processes for construction transport in urban environments. To address this purpose, two research questions were formulated and answered through two studies: one qualitative and one quantitative. The first research question and corresponding study aim to understand how traffic simulations can support collaborative planning processes to reduce disruptions caused by construction projects in urban areas. The second research question and its associated study aim to examine how machine learning can support decision-making in construction transport planning.

    The qualitative study explores the collaborative planning process of the Ostlänken megaproject in Norrköping, a new highspeed railway connecting Stockholm and Linköping. Earlier studies show that to tackle the issues caused by construction projects, urban planners and traffic planners in the municipality needs tools to assess multiple disturbances at once. A tool that is currently used by traffic planners is traffic simulations; however, previous studies show that the use of traffic simulations in construction focus on car mobility, neglecting pedestrians, cyclists and public transport users. The qualitative study resulted in two conference papers, Paper I and Paper II. The findings highlight that disturbances often stem from a project-centric focus and that municipalities need to coordinate planning at an early stage. The study introduces strategic traffic management planning as a way to coordinate temporary traffic management plans. Traffic simulations are a key component, supporting both the assessment of traffic disturbances and the evaluation of mitigation measures. However, current simulations used by municipalities often lack detailed hourly data on travel flows across all modes (cars, pedestrians, cyclists, public transport, and goods transport), limiting analyses to a daily level.

    The quantitative study examines one of the least detailed components of traffic simulations, construction transport in urban environments. Currently, construction transports are either omitted or included only in aggregate form within other transport sectors. This study takes a different approach by estimating construction transport demand using machine learning with construction context data as input. The findings show a potential of machine learning models to predict construction transport demand, however, the high variance in the contextual data limits accuracy. To provide more effective decision support for urban and traffic planners, the study highlights the need for higher-quality data and standardization of existing datasets.

    List of papers
    1. Integrating traffic simulations into strategic traffic management planning
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>Integrating traffic simulations into strategic traffic management planning
    2025 (English)Conference paper, Oral presentation only (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Purpose

    Construction projects cause disruptions in the form of road closures, resulting in congestion, longer journey times, delays, queues and reduced accessibility. Regular construction projects typically last 2 to 3 years. Mega construction projects, on the other hand, affect the city for a longer period of time, e.g. 10 years. The purpose of this study is to investigate how traffic simulations can be used in the planning stage of a mega construction project to assess disruptions. More specifically, what data is needed for the simulations and what scenarios need to be investigated to support construction traffic management planning.

    Design/methodology/approach

    This is a study based on a longitudinal action research project on the collaborative planning for the Ostlänken megaproject. The stakeholders involved are Norrköping Municipality and the Swedish Transport Administration. The data was collected through a participatory study, where the participants in the meetings with the stakeholders developed different scenarios. This included identifying missing information or data for the evaluation of new scenarios. A scenario is the sum of combined changes in traffic supply (e.g., road closures) and demand (e.g., construction transport) at a given point in time and space during the construction period.

    Findings

    Traffic simulations, even at a very basic level, are proving to be a good support for collaborative planning discussions. There is a trade-off between validity and accuracy and speed. For example, focus only on changing traffic patterns due to road closures and how this may affect logistics to and from the site.

    Originality

    This study contributes to a better understanding of how megaprojects affect both the city and the construction project. There has been a lack of overview in this area. It also contributes with a structured procedure to develop scenarios for simulation and evaluation that can support both the project logistics, construction traffic management plan, and the urban transportation plan.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    Copenhagen, Denmark: , 2025
    Keywords
    traffic simulation; construction traffic management planning; mega construction project; collaborative planning
    National Category
    Transport Systems and Logistics
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-218889 (URN)
    Conference
    37th annual NOFOMA conference, Copenhagen, Denmark, 10-12 June, 2025
    Available from: 2025-10-17 Created: 2025-10-17 Last updated: 2026-04-08
    2. The potential of machine learning modeling to predict urban construction transport demand
    Open this publication in new window or tab >>The potential of machine learning modeling to predict urban construction transport demand
    2025 (English)In: Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, ISSN 2046-6099, E-ISSN 2046-6102Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
    Abstract [en]

    PurposeUrban freight models encounter difficulties in generating construction transport demand, mainly due to a lack of knowledge on its predictors. This study investigates the potential of using data-driven approaches to predict construction site transport demand from a combination of commonly available construction project- and context-related data features.Design/methodology/approachMachine learning (ML) models are applied to multivariate datasets, where findings show that GFA is the most important feature explaining a large part of the data variance.FindingsUsing a combination of features such as GFA, project subtypes, average household income and environmental certification, the models discern enhanced data patterns. However, they struggle to predict unseen data because of the large data variance due to missing features in the dataset, differences in data sources or a large randomness in the number of transports for different construction sites.Research limitations/implicationsThis research underscores the importance of rigorous data collection when deploying ML for city planners and contractors, informing policy and regulations, and ultimately delivering societal gains through reduced construction transport-related disturbances.Originality/valueThis study emphasizes the feature complexity influencing construction transport demand and suggests a proof-of-concept (POC) solution for future data collection.

    Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
    EMERALD GROUP PUBLISHING LTD, 2025
    Keywords
    Construction transport; Demand forecasting; Machine learning; Urban freight planning
    National Category
    Construction Management
    Identifiers
    urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-213559 (URN)10.1108/SASBE-12-2024-0558 (DOI)001479914100001 ()2-s2.0-105003930215 (Scopus ID)
    Note

    Funding Agencies|Swedish Research Council FORMAS; Swedish Innovation Agency (Vinnova) [2021-01055]

    Available from: 2025-05-13 Created: 2025-05-13 Last updated: 2026-04-08
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