liu.seSearch for publications in DiVA
Change search
Link to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Publications (1 of 1) Show all publications
Widmann, D., Lindsten, F. & Zachariah, D. (2021). Calibration tests beyond classification. In: ICLR 2021 - 9th International Conference on Learning Representations Proceedings: . Paper presented at International Conference on Learning Representations, Virtual conference, May 3 - May 7, 2021 (pp. 1-37). International Conference on Learning Representations, ICLR
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Calibration tests beyond classification
2021 (English)In: ICLR 2021 - 9th International Conference on Learning Representations Proceedings, International Conference on Learning Representations, ICLR , 2021, p. 1-37Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than point estimates. Such models can be a valuable tool in decision-making under uncertainty, provided that the model output is meaningful and interpretable. Calibrated models guarantee that the probabilistic predictions are neither over- nor under-confident. In the machine learning literature, different measures and statistical tests have been proposed and studied for evaluating the calibration of classification models. For regression problems, however, research has been focused on a weaker condition of calibration based on predicted quantiles for real-valued targets. In this paper, we propose the first framework that unifies calibration evaluation and tests for probabilistic predictive models. It applies to any such model, including classification and regression models of arbitrary dimension. Furthermore, the framework generalizes existing measures and provides a more intuitive reformulation of a recently proposed framework for calibration in multi-class classification.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
International Conference on Learning Representations, ICLR, 2021
Keywords
calibration, uncertainty quantification, framework, integral probability metric, maximum mean discrepancy
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-188940 (URN)2-s2.0-85147937089 (Scopus ID)
Conference
International Conference on Learning Representations, Virtual conference, May 3 - May 7, 2021
Available from: 2020-12-23 Created: 2022-10-03 Last updated: 2024-08-23Bibliographically approved
Projects
Counterfactual Prediction Methods for Heterogeneous Populations [2018-05040_VR]; Uppsala UniversityRobust learning methods for out-of-distribution tasks [2021-05022_VR]; Uppsala UniversityTrustworthy Bandit Algorithms for Precision Medicine [2024-03903_VR]; Uppsala University
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-6698-0166

Search in DiVA

Show all publications