Background

Lumbar spinal stenosis is a leading indication for spine surgery, but outcomes are heterogeneous. We aimed to develop and externally validate prediction models for 12-month disability and pain to inform shared decision-making.

Methods

This registry-based multicentre cohort study used data from three national spine registries of patients (≥16 years) undergoing elective lumbar spinal stenosis surgery. Data from the Norwegian Registry for Spine Surgery (NORspine, 2007–2023) were used for model development and internal-external cross-validation (IECV). External validation was carried out in the Swedish Registry (SweSpine, 2016–2022) and Danish Registry (DaneSpine, 2009–2022) with data collected by the Spine Centre of Southern Denmark. The primary outcome was the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) at 12 months, modelled as a continuous and binary measure (acceptable symptom state). Secondary outcomes were Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) back and leg pain at 12 months. Logistic regression, linear regression, and XGBoost models were applied with 16 predictors. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. Performance was assessed by calibration, mean absolute error (MAE), adjusted R2, and C-statistics. This study is registered with Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/qz27b/).

Findings

The development cohort included 31,908 patients (52.4% female, 47.6% male). The external validation cohorts included 30,700 from SweSpine (52.8% female, 47.2% male) and 4063 from DaneSpine (54.6% female, 45.4% male). Twelve-month outcome completeness was 77% in the development cohort and ranged from 66% to 80% across the external validation cohorts. For ODI, linear regression achieved a pooled MAE of 12.4 (95% CI 11.8–13.1) after IECV, and 13.3 (95% CI 13.2–13.4) and 12.3 (95% CI 12.0–12.7) at external validation. Adjusted R2 values ranged from 0.26 to 0.33. Calibration was acceptable, with slopes near 1 and calibration-in-the-large ranging from −0.47 after IECV to 1.28–1.54 at external validation, indicating minor systematic underprediction. The binary ODI model achieved C-statistics of 0.75 (95% CI 0.74–0.76) after IECV, and 0.78 (95% CI 0.78–0.79) and 0.76 (95% CI 0.74–0.77) at external validation. Pain models showed lower performance (MAE 2.2–2.6; C-statistics 0.64–0.73). XGBoost yielded similar results.

Interpretation

Models predicting disability and pain were well calibrated and generalisable across Scandinavian countries, with the best overall performance for disability. These findings provide a foundation for prospective evaluation in future studies to determine the impact on decision-making and patient outcomes in clinical practice.

Purpose: To investigate the rate and timing for return to football league games after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) in Swedish players, examining associations with sex, age, level, graft and additional ACL surgery. Method: Data from the Swedish National Knee Registry (SNKLR) and the Swedish Football Association's IT System (FOGIS) were used. The study cohort comprised 971 football players, 64% males, who underwent primary ACLR. Demographics, graft type and surgical information were extracted from the SNKLR and game participation from FOGIS. Follow-up for return to competition (RTC) was conducted for 36 months, while additional ACLR follow-up was 3-7 years. Statistical analyses, including Kaplan-Meier survival curves and relative risk calculations, were employed to assess factors influencing RTC rates and timing. Results: Out of 971 players analyzed, 53% RTC within 3 years with no difference between males and females, at a mean of 15 months (median 14 months) from surgery to the first game. Eleven (2%) players RTC < 6 months from ACLR, 62 (12%) 6-9 months, 125 (24%) 9-12 months and 331 (63%) >12 months. Patellar tendon (PT) grafts demonstrated superior performance, showing quicker returns and higher RTC rates (p = 0.005) compared to hamstring (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.63 [0.48-0.84]) and quadriceps tendon grafts (HR: 0.53 [0.30-0.93]). Players competing in higher divisions pre-injury experienced significantly swifter and higher RTC rates (p < 0.001). Ninety-five (10%) had a registered additional ACLR. Players who RTC did not exhibit a significantly higher rate of revision (35 [7%] vs. 25 [5%]). However, those who returned faced a heightened risk of contralateral ACLRs compared to those who did not RTC (32 [6%] vs. 4 [1%] RR 1.72 [1.59-1.96], p < 0.001). Conclusion: The study reveals that 53% of football players RTC after ACLR, predominantly after more than 12 months. The RTC was higher and faster in high-level players and those receiving a PT graft. The slow RTC may contribute to the relatively low rate of additional ACLRs. Level of EvidenceLevel III.

Background and purpose: The study’s purpose was to develop and internally validate a prognostic survival model exploring baseline variables for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis curve progression.

Methods: A longitudinal prognostic cohort analysis was performed on trial data (n = 135) including girls and boys, Cobb angle 25–40°, aged 9–17 years, remaining growth > 1 year, and previously untreated. Prognostic outcome was defined as curve progression of Cobb angle of > 6° prior to skeletal maturity. 34 candidate prognostic variables were tested. Time-to-event was measured with 6-month intervals. Cox proportional hazards regression survival model (CoxPH) was used for model development and validation in comparison with machine learning models (66.6/33.3 train/test data set). The models were adjusted for treatment exposure.

Results: The final primary prognostic model included 127 patients, predicting progress with acceptable discriminative ability (concordance = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72–0.86). Significant prognostic risk factors were Risser stage of 0 (HR 4.6, CI 2.1–10.1, P < 0.001), larger major curve Cobb angle (HRstandardized 1.5, CI 1.1–2.0, P = 0.005), and higher score on patient-reported pictorial Spinal Appearance Questionnaire (pSAQ) (HRstandardized 1.4, CI 1.0–1.9, P = 0.04). Treatment exposure, entered as a covariate adjustment, contributed significantly to the final model (HR 3.1, CI 1.5–6.0, P = 0.001). Sensitivity analysis displayed that CoxPH maintained acceptable discriminative ability (AUC 0.79, CI 0.65–0.93) in comparison with machine learning algorithms.

Conclusion: The prognostic model (Risser stage, Cobb angle, pSAQ, and menarche) predicted curve progression of > 6° Cobb angle with acceptable discriminative ability. Adding patient report of the pSAQ may be of clinical importance for the prognosis of curve progression.

Low back pain (LBP) occurs in all ages and first-line treatment by physiotherapists is common. The main aim of the current study was to evaluate the effectiveness of implementing a best practice model of care for LBP (intervention group—BetterBackJ MoC) compared to routine physiotherapy care (control group) regarding longitudinal patient reported outcomes. The BetterBackJ MoC contains clinical guideline recommendations and support tools to facilitate clinician adherence to guidelines. A secondary exploratory aim was to compare patient outcomes based on the fidelity of fulfilling a clinical practice quality index regarding physiotherapist care. A stepped cluster randomized design nested patients with LBP in the three clusters which were allocated to control (n = 203) or intervention (n = 264). Patient reported measures were collected at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months and analyzed with mixed model regression. The primary outcome was between-group changes from baseline to 3 months for pain intensity and disability. Implementation of the BetterBackJ MoC did not show any between-group differences in the primary outcomes compared with routine care. However, the intervention group showed significantly higher satisfaction at 3 months and clinically meaningful greater improvement in LBP illness perception at 3 months and quality of life at 3 and 6 months but not in patient enablement and global impression of change compared with the control group. Physiotherapists’ care that adhered to all clinical practice quality indices resulted in an improvement of most patient reported outcomes with a clinically meaningful greater improved LBP illness perception at 3 month and quality of life at 3 and 6 months, significantly greater improvement in LBP illness perception, pain and satisfaction at 3 and 6 months and significantly better enablement at all time points as well as better global improvement outcomes at 3 months compared with non-adherent care. This highlights the importance of clinical guideline based primary care for improving patient reported LBP outcomes.

BACKGROUND: In the light of increasing skin cancer incidences worldwide, preventive measures to promote sun protection in individuals with risky sun habits have continued relevance and importance.

AIM: To report the long-term effect of individualised sun protection advice given in primary health care (PHC), on sun habits and sun protection behaviour.

DESIGN & SETTING: In 2005, 309 PHC patients were enrolled in a randomised controlled study performed in a Swedish PHC setting.

METHOD: At baseline, the study participants completed a Likert scale-based questionnaire, mapping sun habits, propensity to increase sun protection, and attitudes towards sun exposure, followed by randomisation into three intervention groups, all receiving individualised sun protection advice: in Group 1 (n = 116) by means of a letter, and in Group 2 (n = 97) and 3 (n = 96) communicated personally by a GP. In Group 3, participants also underwent a skin ultraviolet-sensitivity phototest, with adjusted sun protection advice based on the result. A repeated questionnaire was administered after 3 and 10 years.

RESULTS: Statistically significant declines were observed in all groups for sun exposure mean scores over time. When using a cumulative score, according to the Sun Exposure and Protection Index (SEPI), significantly greater decrease in SEPI mean score was observed in Groups 2 and 3 (GP), compared to Group 1 (letter); P<0.01. The addition of a phototest did not enhance the effect of the intervention.

CONCLUSION: Individualised sun protection advice mediated verbally by the GP can lead to sustained improvement of sun protective behaviour.

Background Studies investigating the development of ACL injuries over time in football are scarce and more data on what happens before and after return to play (RTP) are needed. Aim To investigate (1) time trends in ACL injury rates, (2) complication rates before return to match play following ACL reconstruction, and (3) the influence of ACL injury on the subsequent playing career in male professional football players. Methods 78 clubs were followed between 2001 and 2015. Time trend in ACL injury rate was analysed using linear regression. ACL-injured players were monitored until RTP and tracked for 3 years after RTP. Results We recorded 157 ACL injuries, 140 total and 17 partial ruptures, with a non-significant average annual increase in the ACL injury rate by 6% (R-2=0.13, b=0.059, 95% CI -0.04 to 0.15, p=0.20). The match ACL injury rate was 20-fold higher than the training injury rate (0.340 vs 0.017 per 1000 h). 138 players (98.6%) with a total rupture underwent ACL reconstruction; all 134 players with RTP data (4 players still under rehabilitation) were able to return to training, but 9 of them (6.7%) suffered complications before their first match appearance (5 reruptures and 4 other knee surgeries). The median layoff after ACL reconstruction was 6.6 months to training and 7.4 months to match play. We report 3-year follow-up data for 106 players in total; 91 players (85.8%) were still playing football and 60 of 93 players (65%) with ACL reconstruction for a total rupture played at the same level. Conclusions The ACL injury rate has not declined during the 2000s and the rerupture rate before return to match play was 4%. The RTP rate within a year after ACL reconstruction was very high, but only two-thirds competed at the highest level 3 years later.

PURPOSE: To identify predictors for additional anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction.

METHODS: Patients from the Swedish national ACL register who underwent ACL reconstruction between January 2005 and February 2013 (follow-up duration 6-104 months) were included. Cox regression analyses included the following independent variables regarding primary injury: age, sex, time between injury and primary ACL reconstruction, activity at primary injury, concomitant injuries, injury side, graft type, and pre-surgery KOOS and EQ-5D scores.

RESULTS: Among ACL reconstruction procedures, 93 % involved hamstring tendon (HT) autografts. Graft type did not predict additional ACL reconstruction. Final regression models only included patients with HT autograft (n = 20,824). Of these, 702 had revision and 591 contralateral ACL reconstructions. The 5-year post-operative rates of revision and contralateral ACL reconstruction were 4.3 and 3.8 %, respectively. Significant predictors for additional ACL reconstruction were age (fourfold increased rate for <16-year-old patients vs. >35-year-old patients), time between injury and primary surgery (two to threefold increased rate for ACL reconstruction within 0-90 days vs. >365 days), and playing football at primary injury.

CONCLUSION: This study identified younger age, having ACL reconstruction early after the primary injury, and incurring the primary injury while playing football as the main predictors for revision and contralateral ACL reconstruction. This suggests that the rate of additional ACL reconstruction is increased in a selected group of young patients aiming to return to strenuous sports after primary surgery and should be taken into consideration when discussing primary ACL reconstruction, return to sports, and during post-surgery rehabilitation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II.

Objective: There is no evidence that a knee arthroscopy is more beneficial to middle-aged patients with meniscal symptoms compared to other treatments. This randomised controlled trial aimed to determine whether an arthroscopic intervention combined with a structured exercise programme would provide more benefit than a structured exercise programme alone for middle-aged patients with meniscal symptoms that have undergone physiotherapy. Method: 150 out of 179 eligible patients, aged 45 to 64 (mean: 54 +/- 5), symptom duration more than 3 months and standing X-ray with Ahlback grade 0, were randomised to: (1) a physiotherapy appointment within 2 weeks of inclusion that included instructions for a 3-month exercise programme (non-surgery group); or (2) the same as (1) plus, within 4 weeks of inclusion, knee arthroscopy for resection of any significant meniscal injuries (surgery group). The primary outcome was change in pain at 12 months, assessed with the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOSPAIN). Results: In the Intention-To-Treat analysis, pain at 12 months was significantly lower in the surgery than in the non-surgery group. The change in KOOSPAIN was significantly larger in the surgery than in the non-surgery group (between-group difference was 10.6 points of change; 95% CI: 3.4 to 17.7, P = 0.004). The As-Treated analysis results were consistent with the Intention-To-Treat analysis results. Conclusion: Middle-aged patients with meniscal symptoms may benefit from arthroscopic surgery in addition to a structured exercise programme. Patients age or symptom history (i.e., mechanical symptoms or acute onset of symptoms) didnt affect the outcome.

Background less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanLimited information is available on the variation in injury rates over multiple seasons of professional football. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanAim less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanTo analyse time-trends in injury characteristics of male professional football players over 11 consecutive seasons. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanMethods less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanA total of 1743 players comprising 27 teams from 10 countries were followed prospectively between 2001 and 2012. Team medical staff recorded individual player exposure and time loss injuries. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanResults less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanA total of 8029 time loss injuries were recorded. The match unavailability due to injury was 14% and constant over the study period. On average, a player sustained two injuries per season, resulting in approximately 50 injuries per team and season. The ligament injury rate decreased during the study period (R-2=0.608, b=-0.040, 95% CI -0.065 to -0.016, p=0.005), whereas the rate of muscle injury (R-2=0.228, b=-0.013, 95% CI -0.032 to 0.005, p=0.138) and severe injury (R-2=0.141, b=0.015, 95% CI -0.013 to 0.043, p=0.255) did not change over the study period. In addition, no changes in injury rates over the 11-year period were found for either training (R-2=0.000, b=0.000, 95% CI -0.035 to 0.034, p=0.988) or match play (R-2=0.282, b=-0.015, 95% CI -0.032 to 0.003, p=0.093). less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanConclusions less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanThe injury rate has decreased for ligament injuries over the last 11years, but overall training, match injury rates and the rates of muscle injury and severe injury remain high.