Background: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the most prevalent chronic liver condition worldwide. There is an urgent need to develop new biomarkers to assess disease severity and to define patients with a progressive phenotype. Activin A is a new promising biomarker with conflicting results about liver fibrosis. In this study we investigate levels of Activin A in patients with biopsy proven MASLD. We assess levels of Activin A in regard to fibrosis stage and genetic variant I148M in the patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA3). Methods: Activin A levels were assessed in plasma samples from patients with biopsy-proven MASLD in a cross-sectional study. All patients were clinically evaluated and the PNPLA3 I148M genotype of the cohort was assessed. Findings41 patients were included and 27% of these had advanced fibrosis. In MASLD patients with advanced fibrosis, Activin A levels was higher (p < 0.001) and could classify advanced fibrosis with an AUROC for activin A of 0.836 (p < 0.001). Patients homozygous for PNPLA3 I148M G/G had higher levels of activin A than non-homozygotes (p = 0.027). Conclusions: Circulating activin A levels were associated with advanced fibrosis and could be a potential blood biomarker for identifying advanced fibrosis in MASLD. Patients with the risk genotype PNPLA3 I148M G/G had higher levels of activin A proposing activin A as a contributor of the transition from simple steatosis to a fibrotic phenotype.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, encompasses steatosis and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), leading to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Preclinical MASLD research is mainly performed in rodents; however, the model that best recapitulates human disease is yet to be defined. We conducted a wide-ranging retrospective review (metabolic phenotype, liver histopathology, transcriptome benchmarked against humans) of murine models (mostly male) and ranked them using an unbiased MASLD 'human proximity score' to define their metabolic relevance and ability to induce MASH-fibrosis. Here, we show that Western diets align closely with human MASH; high cholesterol content, extended study duration and/or genetic manipulation of disease-promoting pathways are required to intensify liver damage and accelerate significant (F2+) fibrosis development. Choline- deficient models rapidly induce MASH-fibrosis while showing relatively poor translatability. Our ranking of commonly used MASLD models, based on their proximity to human MASLD, helps with the selection of appropriate in vivo models to accelerate preclinical research.

Background & aims: Long-term studies of the prognosis of NAFLD are scarce. Here, we investigated the risk of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD.

Methods: We conducted a cohort study with data from Swedish university hospitals. Patients (n = 1,260) with NAFLD without cirrhosis were diagnosed through biopsy or radiology, and had fibrosis estimated through vibration-controlled transient elastography, biopsy, or FIB-4 score between 1974 and 2020 and followed up through 2020. Each patient was matched on age, sex, and municipality with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population (n = 12,529). MALO were ascertained from Swedish national registers. The rate of events was estimated by Cox regression.

Results: MALO occurred in 111 (8.8%, incidence rate = 5.9/1,000 person-years) patients with NAFLD and 197 (1.6%, incidence rate = 1.0/1,000 person-years) reference individuals during a median follow up of 13 years. The rate of MALO was higher in patients with NAFLD (hazard ratio = 6.6; 95% CI = 5.2-8.5). The risk of MALO was highly associated with the stage of fibrosis at diagnosis. In the biopsy subcohort (72% of total sample), there was no difference in risk between patients with and without non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. The 20-year cumulative incidences of MALO were 2% for the reference population, 3% for patients with F0, and 35% for F3. Prognostic information from biopsy was comparable to FIB-4 (C-indices around 0.73 vs. 0.72 at 10 years).

Conclusions: This study provides updated information on the natural history of NAFLD, showing a high rate of progression to cirrhosis in F3 and a similar prognostic capacity of non-invasive tests to liver biopsy.

Impact and implications: Several implications for clinical care and future research may be noted based on these results. First, the risk estimates for cirrhosis development are important when communicating risk to patients and deciding on clinical monitoring and treatment. Estimates can also be used in updated health-economic evaluations, and for regulatory agencies. Second, our results again highlight the low predictive information obtained from ascertaining NASHstatus by histology and call for more objective means by which to define NASH. Such methods may include artificial intelligence-supported digital pathology. We highlight that NASH is most likely the causal factor for fibrosis progression in NAFLD, but the subjective definition makes the prognostic value of a histological NASH diagnosis of limited value. Third, the finding that prognostic information from biopsy and the very simple Fibrosis-4 score were comparable is important as it may lead to fewer biopsies and further move the field towards non-invasive means by which to define fibrosis and, importantly, use non-invasive tests as outcomes in clinical trials. However, all modalities had modest discriminatory capacity and new risk stratification systems are needed in NAFLD. Repeated measures of non-invasive scores may be a potential solution.

Background & Aims: Evidence for the benefit of scheduled imaging for early detection of hepatobiliary malignancies in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is limited. We aimed to compare different follow-up strategies in PSC with the hypothesis that regular imaging improves survival.

Methods: We collected retrospective data from 2975 PSC patients from 27 centres. Patients were followed from the start of scheduled imaging or in case of clinical follow-up from 1 January 2000, until death or last clinical follow-up alive. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality.

Results: A broad variety of different follow-up strategies were reported. All except one centre used regular imaging, ultrasound (US) and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Two centres used scheduled endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in addition to imaging for surveillance purposes. The overall HR (CI95%) for death, adjusted for sex, age and start year of follow-up, was 0.61 (0.47-0.80) for scheduled imaging with and without ERCP; 0.64 (0.48-0.86) for US/MRI and 0.53 (0.37-0.75) for follow-up strategies including scheduled ERCP. The lower risk of death remained for scheduled imaging with and without ERCP after adjustment for cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) or high-grade dysplasia as a time-dependent covariate, HR 0.57 (0.44-0.75). Hepatobiliary malignancy was diagnosed in 175 (5.9%) of the patients at 7.9 years of follow-up. Asymptomatic patients (25%) with CCA had better survival if scheduled imaging had been performed.

Conclusions: Follow-up strategies vary considerably across centres. Scheduled imaging was associated with improved survival. Multiple factors may contribute to this result including early tumour detection and increased endoscopic treatment of asymptomatic benign biliary strictures.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered to be the hepatic manifestation of the metabolic syndrome and is characterized by ectopic accumulation of triglycerides in the cytoplasm of hepatocytes, i.e., steatosis. NAFLD has become the most common chronic liver disease, with an estimated global prevalence of 25%. Although the majority of NAFLD patients will never experience liver-related complications, the progressive potential of NAFLD is indisputable, with 5-10% of subjects progressing to cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, or hepatocellular carcinoma. NAFLD patients with advanced fibrosis are at the highest risk of developing cardiovascular and cirrhosis-related complications. Liver biopsy has hitherto been considered the reference method for evaluation of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis stage. Given the limitations of biopsy for widescale screening, non-invasive tests (NITs) for assessment of steatosis and fibrosis stage, including serum-based algorithms and ultrasound- and magnetic resonance-based methods, will play an increasing role in the management of NAFLD patients. This comprehensive review presents the advantages and limitations of NITs for identification of steatosis and advanced fibrosis in NAFLD. The clinical implications of using NITs to identify and manage NAFLD patients are also discussed.

Context: Guidelines recommend blood-based fibrosis biomarkers to identify advanced nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which is particularly prevalent in patients with obesity. Objective: To study whether the degree of obesity affects the performance of liver fibrosis biomarkers in NAFLD. Design: Cross-sectional cohort study comparing simple fibrosis scores [Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4); NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS); aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index; BARD (body mass index, aspartate-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio, diabetes); Hepamet Fibrosis Score (HFS)] and newer scores incorporating neo-epitope biomarkers PRO-C3 (ADAPT, FIBC3) or cytokeratin 18 (MACK-3). Setting: Tertiary referral center. Patients: We recruited overweight/obese patients from endocrinology (n = 307) and hepatology (n = 71) clinics undergoing a liver biopsy [median body mass index (BMI) 40.3 (interquartile range 36.0-44.7) kg/m(2)]. Additionally, we studied 859 less obese patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD to derive BMI-adjusted cutoffs for NFS. Main Outcome Measures: Biomarker area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values to identify histological stage >= F3 fibrosis or nonalcoholic steatohepatitis with >= F2 fibrosis [fibrotic nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)]. Results: The scores with an AUROC >= 0.85 to identify >= F3 fibrosis were ADAPT, FIB-4, FIBC3, and HFS. For fibrotic NASH, the best predictors were MACK-3 and ADAPT. The specificities of NFS, BARD, and FIBC3 deteriorated as a function of BMI. We derived and validated new cutoffs for NFS to rule in/out >= F3 fibrosis in groups with BM Is <30.0, 30.0 to 39.9, and >= 40.0 kg/m(2). This optimized its performance at all levels of BMI. Sequentially combining FIB-4 with ADAPT or FIBC3 increased specificity to diagnose >= F3 fibrosis. Conclusions: In obese patients, the best-performing fibrosis biomarkers are ADAPT and the inexpensive FIB-4, which are unaffected by BMI. The widely used NFS loses specificity in obese individuals, which may be corrected with BMI-adjusted cutoffs.

Background and Aims: The presence of advanced hepatic fibrosis is the prime marker for the prediction of liver-related complications in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Blood-based non-invasive tests (NITs) have been developed to evaluate fibrosis and identify patients at risk. Current guidelines propose monitoring the progression of NAFLD using repeated NITs at 2-3-year intervals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of changes in NITs measured at two time points with the progression of NAFLD.

Methods. We retrospectively included NAFLD patients with NIT measurements in whom the baseline hepatic fibrosis stage had been assessed by biopsy or transient elastography (TE). Subjects underwent follow-up visits at least 1 year from baseline to evaluate the progression of NAFLD. NAFLD progression was defined as the development of end-stage liver disease or fibrosis progression according to repeat biopsy or TE. The following NITs were calculated at baseline and follow-up: Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and dynamic aspartate-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (dAAR).

Results: One hundred and thirty-five patients were included with a mean follow-up of 12.6 +/- 8.5 years. During follow-up, 41 patients (30%) were diagnosed with progressive NAFLD. Change in NIT scores during follow-up was significantly associated with disease progression for all NITs tested except for NFS. However, the diagnostic precision was suboptimal with area under the receiver operating characteristics 0.56-0.64 and positive predictive values of 0.28-0.36 at sensitivity fixed at 90%.

Conclusions: Change of FIB-4, NFS, APRI, and dAAR scores is only weakly associated with disease progression in NAFLD. Our findings do not support repeated measurements of these NITs for monitoring the course of NAFLD.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Accurate biomarkers for quantifying liver fibrosis are important for clinical practice and trial end-points. We compared the diagnostic performance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), including gadoxetate-enhanced MRI and ³¹P-MR spectroscopy, with fibrosis stage and serum fibrosis algorithms in a clinical setting. Also, in a subset of patients, MR- and transient elastography (MRE and TE) was evaluated when available.

METHODS: Patients were recruited prospectively if they were scheduled to undergo liver biopsy on a clinical indication due to elevated liver enzyme levels without decompensated cirrhosis. Within a month of the clinical work-up, an MR-examination and liver needle biopsy were performed on the same day. Based on late-phase gadoxetate-enhanced MRI, a mathematical model calculated hepatobiliary function (relating to OATP1 and MRP2). The hepatocyte gadoxetate uptake rate (K_Hep) and the normalised liver-to-spleen contrast ratio (LSC_N10) were also calculated. Nine serum fibrosis algorithms were investigated (GUCI, King's Score, APRI, FIB-4, Lok-Index, NIKEI, NASH-CRN regression score, Forns' score, and NAFLD-fibrosis score).

RESULTS: The diagnostic performance (AUROC) for identification of significant fibrosis (F2-4) was 0.78, 0.80, 0.69, and 0.78 for MRE, TE, LSC_N10, and GUCI, respectively. For the identification of advanced fibrosis (F3-4), the AUROCs were 0.93, 0.84, 0.81, and 0.82 respectively.

CONCLUSION: MRE and TE were superior for non-invasive identification of significant fibrosis. Serum fibrosis algorithms developed for specific liver diseases are applicable in this cohort of diverse liver diseases aetiologies. Gadoxetate-MRI was sufficiently sensitive to detect the low function losses associated with fibrosis. None was able to efficiently distinguish between stages within the low fibrosis stages.Lay summaryExcessive accumulation of scar tissue, fibrosis, in the liver is an important aspect in chronic liver disease. To replace the invasive needle biopsy, we have explored non-invasive methods to assess liver fibrosis. In our study we found that elastographic methods, which assess the mechanical properties of the liver, are superior in assessing fibrosis in a clinical setting. Of interest from a clinical trial point-of-view, none of the tested methods was sufficiently accurate to distinguish between adjacent moderate fibrosis stages.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become the most common chronic liver disease affecting approximately 25% of the global population. Although a majority of NAFLD patients will never experience liver-related symptoms it is estimated that 5-10% will develop cirrhosis-related complications with risk of death or need for liver transplantation. NAFLD is closely associated with cardiovascular disease and components of the metabolic syndrome. However, NAFLD is not uncommon in lean individuals and may in these subjects represent a different entity with separate pathophysiological mechanisms involved implying a higher risk for development of end-stage liver disease. There is considerable fluctuation in the histopathological course of NAFLD that may partly be attributed to lifestyle factors and dietary composition. Nutrients such as fructose, monounsaturated fatty acids, and trans-fatty acids may aggravate NAFLD. Presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus seems to be the most important clinical predictor of liver-related morbidity and mortality in NAFLD. Apart from severity of the metabolic syndrome, genetic polymorphisms and environmental factors, such as moderate alcohol consumption, may explain the variation in histopathological and clinical outcome among NAFLD patients. (c) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease affecting approximately 25% of the global population. There is a strong association between the severity, of NAFLD and the components of the metabolic syndrome. NAFLD is also independently associated with cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The progressive potential of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is indisputable today, and the histological spectrum of NAFLD ranges from isolated steatosis to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), with risk of developing :fibrosis and subsequent cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. There is a substantial inter-patient variation in disease progression, therefore, this review will focus on potential modifiers of fibrosis progression, development of liver cirrhosis, decompensation and liver-related mortality. The potential drivers of disease progression that is discussed are; T2DM and Insulin Resistance, body weight, alcohol consumption, genetics (including HFE and alfa-1-antitrypsin) as well as histological features predictive of disease progression.