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Fast and Numerically Stable Particle-Based Online Additive Smoothing: The AdaSmooth Algorithm
KTH Royal Inst Technol, Sweden.
KTH Royal Inst Technol, Sweden.
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för datavetenskap, Statistik och maskininlärning. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-9565-7686
2024 (engelsk)Inngår i: Journal of the American Statistical Association, ISSN 0162-1459, E-ISSN 1537-274X, Vol. 119, nr 545, s. 356-367Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

We present a novel sequential Monte Carlo approach to online smoothing of additive functionals in a very general class of path-space models. Hitherto, the solutions proposed in the literature suffer from either long-term numerical instability due to particle-path degeneracy or, in the case that degeneracy is remedied by particle approximation of the so-called backward kernel, high computational demands. In order to balance optimally computational speed against numerical stability, we propose to furnish a (fast) naive particle smoother, propagating recursively a sample of particles and associated smoothing statistics, with an adaptive backward-sampling-based updating rule which allows the number of (costly) backward samples to be kept at a minimum. This yields a new, function-specific additive smoothing algorithm, AdaSmooth, which is computationally fast, numerically stable and easy to implement. The algorithm is provided with rigorous theoretical results guaranteeing its consistency, asymptotic normality and long-term stability as well as numerical results demonstrating empirically the clear superiority of AdaSmooth to existing algorithms. for this article are available online.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Taylor & Francis Inc , 2024. Vol. 119, nr 545, s. 356-367
Emneord [en]
Adaptive sequential Monte Carlo methods; Central limit theorem; Effective sample size; Particle-path degeneracy; Particle smoothing; State-space models
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-189464DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2022.2118602ISI: 000865636000001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-189464DiVA, id: diva2:1706043
Merknad

Funding Agencies|Swedish Research Council [2018-05230]

Tilgjengelig fra: 2022-10-25 Laget: 2022-10-25 Sist oppdatert: 2024-09-10bibliografisk kontrollert

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Alenlöv, Johan

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