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Predicting Station-Wise Remaining Arrival Times from GPS-Based Train Trajectories Using a Linear Regression Approach
Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Blekinge Institute of Technology, Karlskrona, Sweden.
Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Blekinge Institute of Technology, Karlskrona, Sweden.
Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Blekinge Institute of Technology, Karlskrona, Sweden.
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap, Kommunikations- och transportsystem. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.ORCID-id: 0009-0007-0868-9868
Vise andre og tillknytning
2026 (engelsk)Inngår i: Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Vehicle Technology and Intelligent Transport Systems VEHITS - Volume 1, The SciTePress Digital Library , 2026, s. 393-400Konferansepaper, Publicerat paper (Fagfellevurdert)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a methodology for predicting remaining train arrival times along a predefined railway path using sectionally sampled GPS-based observations collected between consecutive stations. Station-level remaining arrival times are derived from multiple train trips and analyzed using a linear regression model, enabling assessment of both prediction accuracy and temporal consistency. The approach provides continuous predictions of remaining arrival times at each station along the path rather than focusing solely on the final destination. Results demonstrate that median remaining arrival time errors decrease with increasing sampling density, an effect attributed to greater sample availability that captures a larger proportion of the underlying train dynamics and timetable adherence. Under these conditions, the proposed methodology achieves a station-based average median remaining arrival time error of less than 91 seconds. Across 100 repeated out-of-sample evaluations, the results indicate reproducible performance and acceptable coarseness even when the sampling density is substantially reduced. This continuous, station-level prediction capability enables early detection of delays and potential timetable conflicts, providing minute-level predictive accuracy suitable for decision support for train dispatchers

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
The SciTePress Digital Library , 2026. s. 393-400
Emneord [en]
Linear Regression, Train Remaining Arrival Times, Linear Modeling, GPS Data, Map-Matching
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-224183DOI: 10.5220/0014828300004030ISBN: 9789897588310 (digital)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-224183DiVA, id: diva2:2061881
Konferanse
International Conference on Vehicle Technology and Intelligent Transport Systems (VEHITS), Benidorm, Spain, 18-20 May, 2026
Tilgjengelig fra: 2026-05-22 Laget: 2026-05-22 Sist oppdatert: 2026-05-27

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