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An empirical benchmark of deep time-series models for smart meter energy forecasting
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap, Medie- och Informationsteknik. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-1951-7515
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema teknik och social förändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-9888-303X
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema teknik och social förändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-3636-081X
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap, Medie- och Informationsteknik. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-4761-8601
2026 (engelsk)Inngår i: Energy and AI, E-ISSN 2666-5468, Vol. 25, artikkel-id 100870Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Accurate forecasting of energy consumption is important for the efficient operation of power systems, with direct implications for operational costs, energy management, and system maintenance. Due to the availability of extensive high-resolution consumption data from smart meters, data-driven methods have been used for short-term and long-term forecasting. However, their comparative performance on real-world smart meter data is still not well studied. In this paper, we present an empirical benchmark of nine modern deep learning models for time-series forecasting, including linear, MLP-based, convolutional, and Transformer architectures. We evaluate these models on two publicly available smart meter datasets. Our analysis focuses on three factors that strongly affect forecasting performance: the length of historical input, the prediction horizon, and the choice of model architecture. We show that extending the historical context improves accuracy, but only up to a saturation point, after which additional input provides limited benefit. In contrast, accuracy decreases as the prediction horizon increases. We also investigate the trade-off between prediction accuracy and computational complexity, and assess the statistical significance and practical magnitude of performance differences across models. Our results show that deep learning models consistently outperform classical baselines, while lightweight architectures achieve relatively similar performance at significantly lower computational cost. Additionally, architectural differences only become meaningful at longer forecasting horizons and on more heterogeneous datasets. Finally, a subgroup analysis across geodemographic and household categories shows that model choice has limited impact for most population segments, with attention-based architectures appearing to offer an advantage on the most under-represented or behaviorally irregular groups, though this advantage is not statistically robust given the small size of the affected subgroups and does not generalize consistently across datasets. This benchmark provides practical guidance for selecting forecasting models in smart meter energy applications.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Elsevier , 2026. Vol. 25, artikkel-id 100870
Emneord [en]
Time-series forecasting; Smart meters; Deep learning; Energy consumption; Transformer; Benchmark
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-227077DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2026.100870ISI: 001856687100001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105047924622OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-227077DiVA, id: diva2:2094682
Forskningsfinansiär
Swedish Energy Agency, P2024-01187
Merknad

Funding: Swedish Energy Agency (Energimyndigheten) [P2024-01187, 2024-2028]

Tilgjengelig fra: 2026-08-24 Laget: 2026-08-24 Sist oppdatert: 2026-09-21

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