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Predictive Analytics in Smart Grids: Examining the Interplay Between Expectations and Thoughts on Adoption
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, Informationssystem och digitalisering. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.ORCID-id: 0009-0001-6502-8325
2026 (Engelska)Licentiatavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

The transition toward smart and more resilient energy systems has become increasingly urgent as electricity grids confront climate change, rapid industrialization, and rising demand. This transition has seen a significant increase in the integration of renewable energy and an increase in the complexity of managing the grid. Thus, predictive analytics is widely promoted as a digital innovation to address this complexity by generating rich insights,providing real-time visibility, and enabling monitoring in smart grids. Yet its adoption remains shaped by stakeholders’ thoughts on its role and value in smart grid operations. This thesis examines the interplay between stakeholder expectations and thoughts on the adoption of predictive analytics in smart grids,focusing on how such expectations are constructed, aligned, and enacted across organizational and institutional contexts. Drawing on Organizing Vision Theory as its primary theoretical lens, the study conceptualizes predictive analytics not only as a technical capability but as a socially embedded innovation whose adoption depends on shared interpretations, legitimacy, and coordinated action. This thesis investigates how policymakers, grid operators,market actors, and energy users interpret the value and role of predictive analytics in the smart grid, and how their expectations of what predictive analytics is shapes thoughts on adoption. Based on an embedded single-case study conducted within the Swedish smart grid context, the findings show that predictive analytics often diffuses through compelling visions that align managerial aspirations, vendor narratives, and policy priorities, amid divergent expectations and institutional logics. By foregrounding expectations as a central analytical object, this thesis contributes to research on digital innovation in complex socio-technical systems and offers insights into how predictive analytics can be adopted and operationalized in the smart grid. At the same time, it highlights how unresolved tensions among stakeholder expectations continue to shape thoughts on adoption, underscoring the importance of collective sensemaking and institutional alignment in the evolution of smart grids.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2026. , s. 94
Serie
FiF-avhandling - Filosofiska fakulteten – Linköpings universitet, ISSN 1401-4637 ; 140Dissertation from the Swedish Research School of Management and Information Technology (MIT). Licentiate theses, ISSN 1653-2554 ; 60
Nyckelord [en]
Smart grid, predictive analytics, Artificial intelligence, Expectations, Adoption, Organizing Vision
Nationell ämneskategori
Systemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik med samhällsvetenskaplig inriktning Energisystem
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-223869DOI: 10.3384/9789181186215ISBN: 9789181186208 (tryckt)ISBN: 9789181186215 (digital)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-223869DiVA, id: diva2:2059380
Presentation
2026-06-10, ACAS, A-huset, Campus Valla, Linköping, 10:15 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Tillgänglig från: 2026-05-12 Skapad: 2026-05-12 Senast uppdaterad: 2026-05-19Bibliografiskt granskad
Delarbeten
1. AI-Enabled Predictive Analytics in Smart Grids: The Case of Sweden
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>AI-Enabled Predictive Analytics in Smart Grids: The Case of Sweden
2025 (Engelska)Ingår i: Complex Systems Informatics and Modeling Quarterly, E-ISSN 2255-9922, nr 42, s. 43-62Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Smart grids (SGs) revolutionize existing power grids by using a wide range of developing disruptive technologies to generate clean, efficient, and predictable energy. Our study uses an action research method and focuses solely on the first two stages of the action research process, diagnosis and action planning, to evaluate ways to adopt artificial intelligence (AI) applications in SGs for predictive analytics in practice. The diagnosis stage of the study entails conducting a systematic literature review on AI applications in SGs, highlighting four areas of potential for predictive analytics: power outage prediction, demand response, control and coordination, and AI-enabled security to optimize decision-making, diagnose faults, and improve grid stability and security. The action planning step included a document analysis to devise methods to enable the practical implementation of AI in smart grids for predictive analytics. Finally, we address practical ways for implementing transparent AI for predictive analytics, followed by a conclusion and future research direction. The study’s key conclusion is that more research is needed to complete the action taking (implementing the solution), evaluation (assessing the results), and learning (reflecting on lessons learned) phases of the action research cycle.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
RTU Press, 2025
Nyckelord
Smart Grids, Artificial Intelligence, Predictive Analytics, AI Techniques, Smart Grids Stability, AI Interpretability
Nationell ämneskategori
Systemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik med samhällsvetenskaplig inriktning
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-213396 (URN)10.7250/csimq.2025-42.03 (DOI)
Tillgänglig från: 2025-05-05 Skapad: 2025-05-05 Senast uppdaterad: 2026-05-12
2. From Control to Co-Creation: Predictive Analytics in Resilient Distributed Energy Resources
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>From Control to Co-Creation: Predictive Analytics in Resilient Distributed Energy Resources
2025 (Engelska)Ingår i: ACIS 2025 Proceedings, AIS , 2025, artikel-id 94Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

The shift toward decentralised energy generation, driven by the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources, is redefining traditional consumers as active co-creators of electricity generation. This study examines the role of predictive analytics in supporting resilience and co-creation within distributed energy resources (DERs). It employs semi-structured qualitative interviews to explore stakeholder perspectives on how predictive analytics is envisioned and applied. Our preliminary findings show that predictive analytics could be used across diverse applications, such as forecasting, maintenance, and load optimisation. These diverse applications actively shape energy management systems while influencing decision-making and operational design. The application of predictive analytics is shaped by both enabling and constraining conditions. We conclude that predictive analytics functions not only as a technical tool but also aligns stakeholders and promotes collaborative and adaptive energy management among distributed energy resources.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
AIS, 2025
Nyckelord
Predictive analytics, co-creation, distributed energy resources, energy management, smart grid
Nationell ämneskategori
Energisystem
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-221151 (URN)
Konferens
Australasian Conference on Information Systems, 2025
Tillgänglig från: 2026-02-09 Skapad: 2026-02-09 Senast uppdaterad: 2026-05-12

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