liu.seSök publikationer i DiVA
Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?
The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), Sweden; Örebro University School of Business, Sweden.
KTH, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik, Sweden.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-1789-9238
2016 (Engelska)Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, s. 195-205Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty. Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Provided that decisions are based on CBA outcomes, reducing uncertainty is still worthwhile, however, because of the huge sums at stake. Even moderate reductions of uncertainties about unit values, investment costs, future demand and project effects may increase the realized benefits infrastructure investment plans by tens or hundreds of million euros. We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Elsevier , 2016. Vol. 92, s. 195-205
Nyckelord [en]
Cost-benefit analysis, Infrastructure investments, Uncertainty, Robustness
Nationell ämneskategori
Samhällsbyggnadsteknik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-181289DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.08.002ISI: 000384381700014Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84989866931OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-181289DiVA, id: diva2:1615046
Anmärkning

QC 20161031

Tillgänglig från: 2021-11-29 Skapad: 2021-11-29 Senast uppdaterad: 2021-11-29

Open Access i DiVA

Fulltext saknas i DiVA

Övriga länkar

Förlagets fulltextScopus

Person

Eliasson, Jonas

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Eliasson, Jonas
I samma tidskrift
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Samhällsbyggnadsteknik

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

doi
urn-nbn
Totalt: 104 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf