We introduce the Kernel Calibration Conditional Stein Discrepancy test (KCCSD test), a non-parametric, kernel-based test for assessing the calibration of probabilistic models with well-defined scores. In contrast to previous methods, our test avoids the need for possibly expensive expectation approximations while providing control over its type-I error. We achieve these improvements by using a new family of kernels for score-based probabilities that can be estimated without probability density samples, and by using a conditional goodness-of-fit criterion for the KCCSD test’s U-statistic. The tractability of the KCCSD test widens the surface area of calibration measures to new promising use-cases, such as regularization during model training. We demonstrate the properties of our test on various synthetic settings.
Funding Agencies|Centre for Interdisciplinary Mathematics (CIM) at Uppsala University, Sweden; Swedish Research Council [621-2016-06079]; Kjell och Marta Beijer Foundation; Gatsby Charitable Foundation