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Hourly Hydropower Production Forecasting with Machine Learning: A Case Study in Linköping, Sweden
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, Energisystem. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.ORCID-id: 0009-0008-6356-2023
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, Energisystem. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. Division of Building, Energy and Environment Technology, Department of Technology and Environment, University of Gävle, Gävle, Sweden.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-0604-3672
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, Energisystem. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-6885-6118
Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, Energisystem. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-7798-0471
2024 (Engelska)Ingår i: Proceedings of the 10th World Congress on New Technologies (NewTech'24), 2024Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

Machine Learning (ML) is frequently utilized in prediction tasks; however, its applications in hydropower forecasting,particularly in forecasting hourly power production, has not been thoroughly investigated. In this paper, two Deep Learning (DL) models,namely an autoregressive neural network and Long Short-Term Memory, are compared to a seasonal autoregressive moving average(SARIMA) model to forecast the hourly power production at a hydropower station situated in Linköping, Sweden. Hyperparameteroptimization algorithms are used to identify suitable DL models and algorithms for automatic model identification of SARIMA modelsare utilized. The three models are evaluated using a rolling origin strategy on a test dataset that consists of 10 months (January – October2023) of hourly power production. The DL models provided similarly accurate forecasts as the SARIMA model according to meansquared error and mean absolute error. However, the DL models are poorly calibrated, resulting in lower coverage compared to theSARIMA model. Furthermore, the models are using a univariate time series (i.e., using historical power production to forecast futurepower production) and future studies need to explore additional variables that may be useful in providing a more accurate forecast.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2024.
Serie
ICERT ; 102
Nyckelord [en]
Machine learning, deep learning, forecasting, time series, hydropower, power production, uncertainty estimation
Nationell ämneskategori
Sannolikhetsteori och statistik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-207672DOI: 10.11159/icert24.102OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-207672DiVA, id: diva2:1898116
Konferens
10th World Congress on New Technologies (NewTech'24), Barcelona, Spain, August 25-27, 2024.
Tillgänglig från: 2024-09-16 Skapad: 2024-09-16 Senast uppdaterad: 2024-10-18

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Kåge, LinusMilić, VlatkoAndersson, MariaWallén, Magnus

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