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Models for Dispatch of Volunteers in Daily Emergency Response
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3016-2778
2022 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Sufficient emergency resources are essential for emergency services to provide timely help to affected people and to minimize damage to public and private assets and the environment. Emergency services, however, face resource shortages and increasing demand over time. As a result, their response times increase, resulting in lower survival chances of affected people and more severe damage to properties and the environment. Thus, emergency services need to utilize and effectively manage all their available resources. These can be divided into traditional resources, such as ambulances, and new and emerging resources, such as volunteers. Models and methods developed using operations research (OR) methodologies can facilitate the management of these resources. However, despite a rich literature on OR-based models and methods focusing on traditional resources, the literature on new and emerging resources, and specifically volunteers, is scarce.

The aim of this thesis is to develop models and methods for task assignment and dispatch of volunteers to daily medical emergencies. This also includes forecasting models for future emergencies. The developed models and methods consider volunteer programs in Sweden and the Netherlands, employing real historical data.

The aim has been addressed through three studies, one main study and two sub-studies, the results of which are presented in the six included papers. The main study focuses on the development of models, methods, and strategies for task assignment and dispatch of volunteers to out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) cases using OR. To evaluate the survival rates of these patients, the most important health outcome of a response process, survival functions have been used in the development of these models and strategies. The results of this study are presented in Papers II–V. The first sub-study investigates different types of new and emerging resources used in daily medical emergency response, and the results are presented as an overview of the literature in Paper I. The second sub-study focuses on the forecast of medical emergency demand, and its outcomes are presented in Paper VI.

The overall conclusion is that the use of OR-based models and methods can contribute to improved outcomes and increased survival probabilities compared to the strategies and techniques used in the existing systems.

Abstract [sv]

För att räddningsorganisationer som till exempel ambulanssjukvården och den kommunala räddningstjänsten snabbt ska kunna hjälpa drabbade människor, byggnader och miljö, krävs att de har tillräckligt med resurser. Dock ökar hela tiden antalet utryckningar, samtidigt som budgetnedskärningar och rekryteringsproblem påverkar resurstillgången. Detta leder till längre insatstider, vilket ger ökad dödlighet och ökade kostnader. Därför är det av högsta vikt att de befintliga räddningsresurserna används så effektivt som möjligt. Dessa kan delas in i traditionella resurser, som till exempel ambulanser, och nya resurser, som frivilliga personer. Matematiska modeller, som optimerings- och simuleringsmodeller, har länge använts för att stödja planeringen och resurshanteringen av traditionella räddningsresurser, men för frivilliga resurser är det ett mer outforskat område.

Syftet med forskningen som presenteras i denna avhandling är att utveckla modeller och metoder för tilldelning av arbetsuppgifter och utlarmning av frivilliga insatspersoner till akuta sjukdomsfall. I detta ingår också modeller för att prognosticera dylika händelser. De utvecklade modellerna och metoderna baseras på, och är framtagna för att stödja, verkliga frivilliginitiativ i Sverige och Nederländerna.

Syftet uppfylls genom tre olika studier som presenteras via sex forskningsartiklar i avhandlingen. I den första studien görs en litteraturöversikt över nya typer av räddningsresurser som används som komplement till ambulanssjukvård. Den andra studien fokuserar på utvecklingen av modeller, metoder och strategier för uppgiftstilldelning och utlarmning av frivilliga insatspersoner vid hjärtstopp. I den tredje studien presenteras en ny prognosmodell för att prediktera ambulansuppdrag.

Den generella slutsatsen är att beslutsstöd baserat på matematisk modellering kan bidra till bättre utfall, och en ökad överlevnadsgrad, jämfört med de strategier för uppgiftstilldelning, utlarmning och prognostisering som används idag.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2022. , p. 72
Series
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations, ISSN 0345-7524 ; 2203
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Information Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-182309DOI: 10.3384/9789179291853ISBN: 9789179291846 (print)ISBN: 9789179291853 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-182309DiVA, id: diva2:1628106
Public defence
2022-02-18, Online through Zoom (contact viveka.nilson@liu.se) and K3, Kåkenhus, Campus Norrköping, Norrköping, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Civil Contingencies AgencyAvailable from: 2022-01-14 Created: 2022-01-14 Last updated: 2022-01-14Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. A review on initiatives for the management of daily medical emergencies prior to the arrival of emergency medical services
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A review on initiatives for the management of daily medical emergencies prior to the arrival of emergency medical services
2022 (English)In: Central European Journal of Operations Research, ISSN 1435-246X, E-ISSN 1613-9178, Vol. 30, p. 251-302Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Emergency services worldwide face increasing cost pressure that potentially limits their existing resources. In many countries, emergency services also face the issues of staff shortage-creating extra challenges and constraints, especially during crisis times such as the COVID-19 pandemic-as well as long distances to sparsely populated areas resulting in longer response times. To overcome these issues and potentially reduce consequences of daily (medical) emergencies, several countries, such as Sweden, Germany, and the Netherlands, have started initiatives using new types of human resources as well as equipment, which have not been part of the existing emergency systems before. These resources are employed in response to medical emergency cases if they can arrive earlier than emergency medical services (EMS). A good number of studies have investigated the use of these new types of resources in EMS systems, from medical, technical, and logistical perspectives as their study domains. Several review papers in the literature exist that focus on one or several of these new types of resources. However, to the best of our knowledge, no review paper that comprehensively considers all new types of resources in emergency medical response systems exists. We try to fill this gap by presenting a broad literature review of the studies focused on the different new types of resources, which are used prior to the arrival of EMS. Our objective is to present an application-based and methodological overview of these papers, to provide insights to this important field and to bring it to the attention of researchers as well as emergency managers and administrators.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2022
Keywords
Emergency medical services (EMS); First responders; Volunteers; Community first responders (CFR); Automated external defibrillators (AEDs); Drones
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-179866 (URN)10.1007/s10100-021-00769-y (DOI)000697074700001 ()34566490 (PubMedID)
Note

Funding Agencies|Linkoping University; Swedish civil contingencies agency (MSB), through the Center for advanced research in emergency response (CARER)

Available from: 2021-10-06 Created: 2021-10-06 Last updated: 2022-09-28
2. Optimal Dispatch of Volunteers to Out-of-hospital Cardiac Arrest Patients
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Optimal Dispatch of Volunteers to Out-of-hospital Cardiac Arrest Patients
2019 (English)In: Proceedings of the 52nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS), Hawaii, USA, 8th-11th January 2019, Honolulu: University of Hawai'i at Mānoa , 2019, p. 4088-4097Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Initiatives with mobile phone dispatched volunteers to out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) cases, can be found today in some countries, e.g. Sweden, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Italy. When an OHCA case is reported, an alarm is sent to the registered volunteers’ phones. However, the allocation of which volunteers to send to the automatic external defibrillator (AED) and who to send directly to the patient, is today based on simple rules of thumb. In this paper, we propose a model to optimally select how many and which volunteers to send directly to the patient, and who should pick up and deliver an AED. The results show that the model can help increase the survivability of the patients, compared to simple decision rules.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Honolulu: University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, 2019
Series
Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS), ISSN 1530-1605, E-ISSN 2572-6862
Keywords
Optimization of and the Use of IT for Healthcare Processes Information Technology in Healthcare Daily emergency, Mixed-integer optimization, Mobile dispatch, SMS life savers, Volunteer management
National Category
Medical Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-155670 (URN)10.24251/HICSS.2019.496 (DOI)000625294904020 ()2-s2.0-85108268085 (Scopus ID)9780998133126 (ISBN)
Conference
The 52nd Hawaii InternationalConference on System Sciences (HICSS), Hawaii, USA, 8th-11th January 2019
Available from: 2019-03-25 Created: 2019-03-25 Last updated: 2024-09-15Bibliographically approved
3. Modeling uncertain task compliance in dispatch of volunteers to out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modeling uncertain task compliance in dispatch of volunteers to out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients
2021 (English)In: Computers & industrial engineering, ISSN 0360-8352, E-ISSN 1879-0550, Vol. 159, article id 107515Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In countries such as Sweden, Italy, Switzerland, and the Netherlands, projects in which volunteers are dispatched to out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients with the use of mobile phones exist. Once an OHCA case is reported, a notification is sent to the mobile phones of registered volunteers that are in the vicinity of the patient. These projects mostly use static dispatch methods to determine which volunteers should be sent directly to the patient and which ones should pick up an automatic external defibrillator (AED). However, such schemes do not consider uncertainties associated with these task assignment decisions (e.g., if volunteers will do as instructed, or do something else). In this paper, we propose a method for optimized task assignment and dispatch of volunteers to OHCA patients that considers the uncertainty related to volunteers actions once assigned a task. We then compare the results of our method to those of a static dispatch method used in an ongoing mobile phone volunteer dispatch project in Sweden and validate them using simulation. Furthermore, we perform a sensitivity analysis on several parameters to investigate their effect on the performance of the proposed method. With the comparative results we show that the proposed method may help increase the survivability of OHCA patients.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2021
Keywords
Health services; Emergency response; Volunteers; Mobile phone dispatch; Uncertainty modeling; Survival function
National Category
Computer Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-178975 (URN)10.1016/j.cie.2021.107515 (DOI)000687470600010 ()
Note

Funding Agencies|Swedish civil contingencies agency (MSB), through the research program Managing the incident site of the future (MIST)

Available from: 2021-09-07 Created: 2021-09-07 Last updated: 2022-01-14
4. Forecasting the Demand for Emergency Medical Services
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Forecasting the Demand for Emergency Medical Services
2019 (English)In: Proceedings of the 52nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 2019, Honolulu: University of Hawai'i at Manoa , 2019, Vol. January, p. 1855-1864Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Accurate forecast of the demand for emergency medical services (EMS) can help in providing quick and efficient medical treatment and transportation of out-of-hospital patients. The aim of this research was to develop a forecasting model and investigate which factors are relevant to include in such model. The primary data used in this study was information about ambulance calls in three Swedish counties during the years 2013 and 2014. This information was processed, assigned to spatial grid zones and complemented with population and zone characteristics. A Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression approach was then used to select significant factors and develop the forecasting model. The model was compared to the forecasting model that is currently incorporated in the EMS information system used by the ambulance dispatchers. The results show that the proposed model performs better than the existing one.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Honolulu: University of Hawai'i at Manoa, 2019
Series
Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS), ISSN 1530-1605, E-ISSN 2572-6862 ; January
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Probability Theory and Statistics Communication Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-157097 (URN)10.24251/HICSS.2019.225 (DOI)000625294901112 ()2-s2.0-85072773703 (Scopus ID)9780998133126 (ISBN)
Conference
the 52nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 2019, January 8-11, Grand Wailea, Maui, Hawai'i
Available from: 2019-05-28 Created: 2019-05-28 Last updated: 2024-08-30Bibliographically approved

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