Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020Show others and affiliations
2022 (English)In: Emerging Infectious Diseases, ISSN 1080-6040, E-ISSN 1080-6059, Vol. 28, no 3, p. 564-571
Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Ostergotland County (population approximate to 465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to <1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , 2022. Vol. 28, no 3, p. 564-571
National Category
General Practice
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-184089DOI: 10.3201/eid2803.210267ISI: 000771729200008PubMedID: 35201737OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-184089DiVA, id: diva2:1650929
Note
Funding Agencies|Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency [2010-2788]; Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research CouncilEuropean Commission [2021-05608]; ALF grants from Region Ostergotland [936190]; Research Council of Southeast Sweden [FORSS-940915]
2022-04-082022-04-082022-05-09