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Evaluating ensemble post-processing for wind power forecasts
Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Germany.
Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Germany.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Energy Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Germany.
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2022 (English)In: Wind Energy, ISSN 1095-4244, E-ISSN 1099-1824, Vol. 25, no 8, p. 1379-1405Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Capturing the uncertainty in probabilistic wind power forecasts is challenging, especially when uncertain input variables, such as the weather, play a role. Since ensemble weather predictions aim to capture the uncertainty in the weather system, they can be used to propagate this uncertainty through to subsequent wind power forecasting models. However, as weather ensemble systems are known to be biassed and underdispersed, meteorologists post-process the ensembles. This post-processing can successfully correct the biasses in the weather variables but has not been evaluated thoroughly in the context of subsequent forecasts, such as wind power generation forecasts. The present paper evaluates multiple strategies for applying ensemble post-processing to probabilistic wind power forecasts. We use Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) as the post-processing method and evaluate four possible strategies: only using the raw ensembles without post-processing, a one-step strategy where only the weather ensembles are post-processed, a one-step strategy where we only post-process the power ensembles and a two-step strategy where we post-process both the weather and power ensembles. Results show that post-processing the final wind power ensemble improves forecast performance regarding both calibration and sharpness whilst only post-processing the weather ensembles does not necessarily lead to increased forecast performance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Wiley , 2022. Vol. 25, no 8, p. 1379-1405
Keywords [en]
ensemble post-processing; energy time series; probabilistic wind power forecasting
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-185018DOI: 10.1002/we.2736ISI: 000788565600001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-185018DiVA, id: diva2:1658847
Note

Funding Agencies|Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [EXC 2064/1, RTG 2153, SFB/TRR 165]; Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft

Available from: 2022-05-18 Created: 2022-05-18 Last updated: 2023-03-30Bibliographically approved

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Andersson, Maria

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf