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Cost-effectiveness of population screening for atrial fibrillation: the STROKESTOP study
Linköping University, Department of Health, Medicine and Caring Sciences, Division of Society and Health. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences.
Karolinska Inst, Sweden.
Linköping University, Department of Health, Medicine and Caring Sciences, Division of Society and Health. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences.
Linköping University, Department of Health, Medicine and Caring Sciences, Division of Society and Health. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. AstraZeneca Nord, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5666-7061
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2023 (English)In: European Heart Journal, ISSN 0195-668X, E-ISSN 1522-9645, Vol. 3, no 3, p. 196-204Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Aims Previous studies on the cost-effectiveness of screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) are based on assumptions of long-term clinical effects. The STROKESTOP study, which randomised 27 975 persons aged 75/76 years into a screening invitation group and a control group, has a median follow-up time of 6.9 years. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for AF using clinical outcomes. Methods and results The analysis is based on a Markov cohort model. The prevalence of AF, the use of oral anticoagulation, clinical event data, and all-cause mortality were taken from the STROKESTOP study. The cost for clinical events, age-specific utilities, utility decrement due to stroke, and stroke death was taken from the literature. Uncertainty in the model was considered in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Per 1000 individuals invited to the screening, there were 77 gained life years and 65 gained quality-adjusted life years. The incremental cost was euro1.77 million lower in the screening invitation group. Gained quality-adjusted life years to a lower cost means that the screening strategy was dominant. The result from 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations showed that the AF screening strategy was cost-effective in 99.2% and cost-saving in 92.7% of the simulations. In the base-case scenario, screening of 1000 individuals resulted in 10.6 [95% confidence interval (CI): -22.5 to 1.4] fewer strokes (8.4 ischaemic and 2.2 haemorrhagic strokes), 1.0 (95% CI: -1.9 to 4.1) more cases of systemic embolism, and 2.9 (95% CI: -18.2 to 13.1) fewer bleedings associated with hospitalization. Conclusion Based on the STROKESTOP study, this analysis shows that a broad AF screening strategy in an elderly population is cost-effective. Efforts should be made to increase screening participation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2023. Vol. 3, no 3, p. 196-204
Keywords [en]
Atrial fibrillation; Screening; Stroke prevention; Cost-effectiveness; Markov modelling
National Category
Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-190101DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehac547ISI: 000880254400001PubMedID: 36349968Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85148420887OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-190101DiVA, id: diva2:1712875
Note

Funding Agencies|Swedish Heart and Lung foundation; Stockholm County Council; Tornspiran Foundation; King Gustav V and Queen Victorias Freemasons Foundation; Klebergska Foundation; Scientific Council of Halland Region; Southern Regional Healthcare Committee; Swedish stroke Foundation; Carl Bennet AB; Boehringer Ingelheim; Bayer; Bristol-Myers Squibb-Pfizer

Available from: 2022-11-23 Created: 2022-11-23 Last updated: 2025-02-20

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Lyth, JohanAronsson, Mattias

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