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Parameter Sensitivity of Transient Community Dynamics
Linköping University, Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Ecological and Environmental Modeling. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering. Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7355-3664
2024 (English)In: American Naturalist, ISSN 0003-0147, E-ISSN 1537-5323, Vol. 203, no 4, p. 473-489Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Transient dynamics have always intrigued ecologists, but current rapid environmental change (inducing transients even in previously undisturbed systems) has highlighted their importance more than ever. Here, I introduce a method for analyzing the sensitivity of transient ecological dynamics to parameter perturbations. The question the method answers is: how would the community dynamics have unfolded for some time horizon had the parameters been slightly different? I apply the method to three empirically parameterized models: competition between native forbs and exotic grasses in California, a host-parasitoid system, and an experimental chemostat predator-prey model. These applications showcase the ecological insights one can gain from models using transient sensitivity analysis. First, one can find parameters and their combinations whose perturbations disproportionately affect a system. Second, one can identify particular windows of time during which the predicted deviation from the unperturbed trajectories is especially large and utilize this information for management purposes. Third, there is an inverse relationship between transient and long-term sensitivities whenever the interacting populations are ecologically similar; paradoxically, the smaller the immediate response of the system, the more extreme its long-term response will be.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
UNIV CHICAGO PRESS , 2024. Vol. 203, no 4, p. 473-489
Keywords [en]
community ecology; perturbations; sensitivity analysis; transient dynamics
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-201306DOI: 10.1086/728764ISI: 001164572700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85188201727OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-201306DiVA, id: diva2:1842431
Note

Funding Agencies|Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsradet) [VR 2017-05245]

Available from: 2024-03-05 Created: 2024-03-05 Last updated: 2025-03-11Bibliographically approved

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Barabas, György

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