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Estimating Aid Effectiveness in Fragile and Conflict-affected States: Evidence From Satellite-based Inference in Somalia
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, The Institute for Analytical Sociology, IAS.
2024 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Somalia is one of the poorest countries in the world despite being one of the largest recipients of humanitarian aid. Thus, it is crucial to evaluate the impact of aid to support futureinterventions. However, considerable challenges exist in researching poverty-related issues because of data scarcity in Somalia. Due to safety concerns regarding civil conflict,previous studies have relied on a small number of surveys to examine Somalia’s poverty,generating inconsistent results, as many regions are inaccessible due to military groups.Hence, the lack of data makes it difficult to evaluate the effect of intervention on povertylevels. In contrast, this study uses satellite data and machine learning to address thesechallenges in two ways. Firstly, we use an imputed poverty estimate of all settlementareas, including conflicted regions. Secondly, it uses satellite data in a machine-learningframework to account for spatial confounders. Our findings reveal that, depending on thechoice of identification strategy, aid interventions in Somalia have an estimated causal effect of between five and seven points on the International Wealth Index scale. In sum, thisstudy highlights how innovative methods can enable research in vulnerable countries withsevere data collection challenges, thereby improving the understanding of the effects of humanitarian aid on poverty and supporting Somalia in achieving sustainable development.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024.
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-205490ISRN: LIU-IEI-FIL-A--24/04638--SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-205490DiVA, id: diva2:1877355
Subject / course
Master’s Thesis in Computational Social Science
Available from: 2024-06-26 Created: 2024-06-25 Last updated: 2024-06-26Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf