Integrating Traffic Speed Forecasting with Routing Algorithms: A Data Driven Approach
2025 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE credits
Student thesisAlternative title
Integrering av trafikprognoser med ruttalgoritmer : En datadriven metod (Swedish)
Abstract [en]
This thesis explores the potential of reducing travel time through sophisticated routing methods utilizing traffic speed forecasting models. The current solution used by Triona relies on a naive static model, which assumes that traffic always flows at the speed limit for all roads. While this approach yields reasonable results, it does not account for spatial or temporal variations in traffic conditions, leaving room for improvement. To address this, we develop and evaluate more advanced forecasting models including statistical approaches such as autoregressive integrated moving average and machine learning models such as LSTM and traffic graph convolutional LSTM. The methodology involves collecting historic traffic data from the Stockholm metropolitan area, preprocessing the data, adapting traffic speed forecasting models, implementing routing algorithms and evaluating generated routes. The routing algorithms, based on a modified Dijkstra's algorithm, solve the time-dependent shortest path and time-dependent traveling salesman problem. The evaluation shows that utilizing the LSTM model instead of the naive static model for routing reduces the difference from optimal routing from 4.37% to 1.18% for time-dependent shortest paths and from 5.40% to 1.52% for time-dependent traveling salesman problems. This thesis contributes a framework for applying and evaluating traffic speed forecasting methods to real traffic data, highlighting the potential increase in transportation efficiency through intelligent routing.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 91
Keywords [en]
traffic forecasting, traffic speed forecasting, machine learning, time dependent, discrete time dependent, time dependent graph, routing, logistics, intelligent routing, lstm, gcn, gnn, gcnn, graph convolutional neural network, graph convolution, arima, time dependent shortest path, time dependent traveling salesman problem, tdsp, tdtsp
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-215961ISRN: LIU-IDA/LITH-EX-A--25/080--SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-215961DiVA, id: diva2:1981301
External cooperation
Triona AB
Subject / course
Computer Engineering
Presentation
2025-06-19, Alan Turing, Linköping, 08:15 (English)
Supervisors
Examiners
2025-07-042025-07-032025-07-04Bibliographically approved