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Estimating emergency vehicle travel time
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology.
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology.
2025 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Estimering av restid för utryckningsfordon (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

A large part of the total response time in case of an emergency is the travel time between the location where the emergency vehicle is stationed and the emergency location. Having a reliable estimate of travel time will give good conditions for the planning of emergency calls, which in turn can help to reduce total response time and reduce operating costs. This thesis investigates what factors influence emergency vehicle travel time using historical vehicle data and publicly available information such as road characteristics and weather. The vehicle position data available for this thesis span across all regions of Sweden. The positions were made into routes that were map matched to the existing road network from the national road database. An automatic route validation algorithm was implemented to remove poorly map matched routes. Routes were given a variety of properties describing them, for example, time of day, average speed limit, and precipitation. With the routes and their properties, a variety of speed estimation models were developed using methods such as linear regression and decision trees with different variable selections, which were then used for travel time estimation. The models were evaluated with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). A baseline model consisting only of the average speed limit was used for reference, the performance was 21.82% MAPE and 202.07 seconds RMSE with a decision tree. The thesis concluded that some of the most important variables for emergency vehicle travel time estimation were total distance, average speed limit, and response status. One of the best-performing models included a decision tree with variables that included total distance, average speed limit, hour of day, response status, visibility, and more, which had MAPE 16.21% and RMSE 181.81 seconds. A regression-based model with only four input variables in use with interaction terms and variable transformations also showed a relatively high prediction accuracy of 17.40% MAPE and 187.65 seconds RMSE.

Abstract [sv]

En stor del av den totala responstiden vid en nödsituation är restiden mellan den plats där utryckningsfordonet är stationerat och olycksplatsen. Att ha en tillförlitlig estimering av restid ger goda förutsättningar för planering vid nödsamtal, vilket i sin tur kan bidra till att minska den totala responstiden och även minska driftskostnader. Detta arbete undersöker vilka faktorer som påverkar utryckningsfordons restid med hjälp av historiska fordonspositionsdata och offentligt tillgänglig information som vägegenskaper och väder. Fordonspositionsdata som är tillgänglig för detta arbete finns i alla Sveriges regioner. Positionerna gjordes till rutter som kartmatchades med det befintliga vägnätet från den nationella vägdatabasen. En automatisk ruttvalideringsalgoritm implementerades för att ta bort dåligt kartmatchade rutter. Rutter tilldelades beskrivande egenskaper, till exempel tid på dagen, genomsnittlig hastighetsbegränsning och nederbörd. Från rutterna och deras egenskaper utvecklades olika hastighetsestimeringsmodeller med metoder som linjär regression och beslutsträd med olika variabelselektioner, vilka sedan användes för restidsestimering. Modellerna utvärderades med procentuellt medelabsolutfel (MAPE) och kvadratiskt medelfel (RMSE). Som referens användes ett beslutsträd som basmodell bestående endast av medelhastighetsbegränsning som variabel, resultatet var då 21,82% MAPE och 202,07 sekunder RMSE. Slutsatsen var att några av de viktigaste variablerna för estimering av restid för utryckningsfordon var total sträcka, medelhastighetsbegränsning och ärendestatus. En av de bäst presterande modellerna inkluderade ett beslutsträd med bland annat total sträcka, medelhastighetsbegränsning, tid på dagen, ärendestatus och sikt som variabler, och hade 16,21% MAPE och 181,81 sekunder RMSE. En regressionsbaserad modell med endast fyra variabler, med interaktionstermer och variabeltransformationer, visade också relativt högt MAPE och RMSE på 17,40% respektive 187,65 sekunder.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025.
Keywords [en]
emergency vehicles, historical vehicle data, travel time, travel time estimation, variable importance, variable selection
Keywords [sv]
utryckningsfordon, historiska fordonsdata, restid, estimering av restid, variabelviktighet, variabelselektion
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-215984ISRN: LiU-ITN-TEK-A--25/020--SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-215984DiVA, id: diva2:1981598
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Available from: 2025-07-04 Created: 2025-07-04 Last updated: 2025-07-04Bibliographically approved

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456789107 of 520
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