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Microscopic simulation of bicycle traffic: Analysis and modeling of heterogeneity and free riding on bicycle paths
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8488-0540
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

As bicycling becomes an integral part of sustainable mobility, reliable planning tools are essential to ensure bicycling as an efficient mode of transport. The growing bicycle demand requires not only expanding infrastructure, but also ensuring that such infrastructure supports well-functioning traffic under high demands. Given the high heterogeneity in bicyclist characteristics, the use of microscopic traffic simulation, which explicitly considers individual properties and preferences, becomes particularly useful for evaluating bicycle traffic performance. While traffic simulation has been extensively utilized for traffic planning of various modes of transport, this type of modeling support is largely lacking in the planning of bicycle traffic. Although most commercial simulators allow multi-modal traffic analysis, bicycle traffic is often modeled by adjusting parameters in models originally designed for other modes, even though bicyclists may exhibit distinct characteristics and behaviors. Consequently, the proper inclusion of bicyclists into various traffic simulation analyses is difficult, and often inaccurate. The objective of this thesis is to develop and evaluate mathematical models for accurate microscopic simulation of bicycle traffic, with a focus on developing empirically well-founded models that capture the heterogeneity in bicyclists’ characteristics and preferences, as well as their interactions with the built environment and with each other. The thesis delivers an empirical characterization of bicycle traffic in diverse contexts, describing the heterogeneity in characteristics and preferences of bicyclists—including disaggregated analyses by bicycle type— that potentially influence traffic performance. Methods for processing and validating bicycling data are developed to support this characterization. Furthermore, the thesis demonstrates that bicyclist speeds are highly context-dependent and proposes simulation models for context-related features of bicycling trips, such as topography, curvature, and wind, that integrate heterogeneous and adaptive free riding behavior to improve the accuracy of simulated speeds and the reliability of bicycle traffic simulations. This thesis advances the accuracy and applicability of microscopic simulation of bicycle traffic for its use in the planning of well-functioning bicycle traffic.

Abstract [sv]

Cykling är en viktig del av hållbar mobilitet, men för att säkerställa cykling som ett effektivt transportslag krävs pålitliga verktyg för planering och beslut. Den växande efterfrågan på cykling kräver inte bara utbyggd infrastruktur, utan också att infrastrukturen möjliggör välfungerande trafik vid höga belastningar. Givet den stora variationen i cyklisters egenskaper blir mikroskopisk trafiksimulering, som tar hänsyn till individuella egenskaper och preferenser, särskilt användbar för att utvärdera cykeltrafikens framkomlighet. Samtidigt som trafiksimulering länge har använts inom planering för olika transportslag saknas denna typ av verktyg i stor utsträckning för cykeltrafik. Även om de flesta kommersiella simulatorer kan analysera flera trafikslag modelleras cyklister ofta genom att justera parametrar i modeller som ursprungligen designades för andra transportslag, trots att cyklister ofta upp-visar unika egenskaper och beteenden. Det gör det svårt att få korrekta resultat när man simulerar cykeltrafik. Syftet med denna avhandling är att utveckla och utvärdera matematiska modeller för noggrann mikroskopisk simulering av cykeltrafik, med fokus på modeller som fångar egenskaper och preferenser hos cyklister, liksom deras interaktioner med infrastrukturen och med varandra. Avhandlingen beskriver cykeltrafik i olika sammanhang, inklusive hur egenskaper och preferenser varierar mellan olika cykeltyper, vilket kan på-verka trafikens framkomlighet. Detta baseras på metoder för bearbetning och validering av cykeldata som utvecklades i avhandlingen. Vidare föreslår avhandlingen simuleringsmodeller för hur olika förhållanden på en cykeltur påverkar cyklister, såsom lutningar, kurvor, och vind. Modellerna tar hänsyn till att cyklister är olika och anpassar sig till förhållandena, vilket förbättrar noggrannheten och tillförlitligheten i simuleringarna. Denna avhandling bidrar till ökad användbarhet hos mikroskopisk simulering av cykeltrafik för att planera välfungerande cykeltrafik.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2026. , p. 48
Series
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations, ISSN 0345-7524 ; 2494
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-221178DOI: 10.3384/9789181183627ISBN: 9789181183610 (print)ISBN: 9789181183627 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-221178DiVA, id: diva2:2037479
Public defence
2026-03-13, K3 Önnesjösalen, Kåkenhus, Campus Norrköping, Norrköping, 09:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

Funding Agencies: Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) and the Centre for Traffic Research (CTR).

Available from: 2026-02-11 Created: 2026-02-11 Last updated: 2026-02-11Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Empirical study of bicycle traffic characteristics relevant for microscopic simulation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Empirical study of bicycle traffic characteristics relevant for microscopic simulation
2025 (English)In: JOURNAL OF CYCLING AND MICROMOBILITY RESEARCH, ISSN 2950-1059, Vol. 3, article id 100054Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Studies of bicycle traffic characteristics are essential for understanding bicyclist behavior and developing suitable microscopic models for traffic simulation. Based on empirical data on real-world bicycle traffic, obtained through video-based data collection techniques, we describe characteristics of free-riding, following, and overtaking that facilitate the simulation of bidirectional bicycle traffic. In total, we analyze data from 195 605 bicyclists across seven bicycle paths in Sweden, with five located in Stockholm and two in Gothenburg. The analysis reveals multimodal distributions of speed and lateral position due to the distinct preferences of bicyclists that vary according to the type of bicycle used. Moreover, speeds are generally highest during morning rush hours at the locations under investigation. Based on wind measurements, we conclude that there is no statistically significant effect on mean free speed from wind speeds in the range of +/- 3 m/s. The distribution of speed differences between bicyclists at overtakings indicates a broad range of speed disparities among bicyclists, and is significantly influenced by infrastructure design. Furthermore, infrastructure design (path width, horizontal alignment, and presence of fixed objects along the edge) and traffic volumes significantly lateral positioning. Our results demonstrate the inherent heterogeneity in the characteristics of bicyclists, underscoring the need to advance modeling to incorporate these distinct characteristics into microscopic traffic simulation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER, 2025
Keywords
Bicycle traffic; Microscopic traffic simulation; Empirical analysis; Naturalistic data
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-220546 (URN)10.1016/j.jcmr.2024.100054 (DOI)001644104900002 ()2-s2.0-105010877050 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding Agencies|Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) via the Centre for Traffic Research (CTR) [TRV 2019/84465]

Available from: 2026-01-20 Created: 2026-01-20 Last updated: 2026-02-11
2. How to Model the Effect of Gradient on Bicycle Traffic in Microscopic Traffic Simulation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>How to Model the Effect of Gradient on Bicycle Traffic in Microscopic Traffic Simulation
2022 (English)In: Transportation Research Record, ISSN 0361-1981, E-ISSN 2169-4052, Vol. 2676, no 11, p. 609-620, article id 03611981221094300Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Microscopic traffic simulation is a useful tool for the planning of motorized traffic, yet bicycle traffic still lacks this type of modeling support. Nonetheless, certain microscopic traffic simulators, such as Vissim, model bicycle traffic by applying models originally designed for car traffic. The gradient of a bicycle path has a significant impact on the speed of cyclists; therefore, this impact should be captured in microscopic traffic simulation. We investigate two calibration approaches to reproduce the effect of gradient on the speed of cyclists using the default driver behavioral model in Vissim. The first approach is to modify the simulated gradient to represent different values of the gradient-acceleration parameter: a fixed value that represents a decrease in the maximum acceleration that cyclists can apply on an uphill. The second approach is to adjust the maximum-acceleration function. We evaluate both approaches by applying a Vissim model of a bidirectional bicycle path with a 3% gradient in Stockholm. The results show that the current default implementation in the Vissim model underestimates the effect of gradient on speed. Moreover, the gradient-acceleration parameter does not directly reduce the maximum acceleration of all cyclists, but only of those cyclists riding above a certain speed. We conclude that by using a higher gradient-acceleration value than the default, we accurately estimate the observed mean speed on the uphill. However, neither of the investigated calibration approaches provides accurate estimates of the speed distributions. We emphasize the need for developing more accurate behavioral models designed for cyclists.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications Inc, 2022
Keywords
bicycle traffic and behavior; bicycle infrastructure design; gradient; speed; calibration; microscopic traffic simulation; Vissim
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-186509 (URN)10.1177/03611981221094300 (DOI)000810319600001 ()
Note

Funding Agencies|Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) via Centre for Traffic Research (CTR) [TRV 2019/84465]

Available from: 2022-06-29 Created: 2022-06-29 Last updated: 2026-02-11Bibliographically approved
3. A Power-Based Approach to Model the Impact of Gradient in Bicycle Traffic Simulation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Power-Based Approach to Model the Impact of Gradient in Bicycle Traffic Simulation
2023 (English)Conference paper, Oral presentation with published abstract (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

To simulate bicycle traffic accurately, it is essential to capture how bicyclists react to features of the infrastructure such as the longitudinal gradient of a bicycle path. Bicycling requires human-powered motion, and the power output provided by bicyclists differ significantly among bicyclists due to physical capabilities and preferences. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to investigate the connection between power output and gradient in bicycle traffic, with the purpose of developing a power-based model that predicts accurately the speed of bicyclists. Based on trajectory data of free-riding bicyclists travelling on a non-flat bicycle path segment, we estimate changes in power output as a function of gradient considering the physical forces acting on a bicycle. The results suggest a linear correlation between power output and gradient; while bicyclists increase their power output on the uphill as gradient increases, they decrease their power output on the downhill as gradient increases. By implementing this correlation into a traffic simulation algorithm, we show that the simulation captures well the impact of gradients in a population of bicyclists as it reproduces similar speed profiles. We conclude that bicyclists adapt their power output to compensate for the gradient and its associated change in speed, and that the impact of gradient varies greatly among bicyclists. Furthermore, we conclude that power-based modelling of free-riding bicyclists is an attractive alternative to investigate further.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Transportation Research Board, 2023
Keywords
bicycle travel, highway grades, microscopic traffic flow, power output, traffic simulation
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-196210 (URN)
Conference
Transportation research board 102nd annual meeting. Washington DC, United States. 2023-1-8 to 2023-1-12
Available from: 2023-07-05 Created: 2023-07-05 Last updated: 2026-02-11Bibliographically approved
4. Exploring free riding behavior: An instrumented bicycle study on the impact of infrastructure and wind on bicycling
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploring free riding behavior: An instrumented bicycle study on the impact of infrastructure and wind on bicycling
Show others...
2025 (English)In: JOURNAL OF CYCLING AND MICROMOBILITY RESEARCH, ISSN 2950-1059, Vol. 5, article id 100083Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Understanding free riding behavior-where bicyclists are unconstrained by other road users or traffic control measures-is essential for planning efficient and appealing bicycle traffic systems. Bicyclist behavior is shaped by a combination of environmental conditions and individual preferences. This study examines free riding behavior, and identifies correlations with individual characteristics and contextual features such as infrastructure design (slopes and curves) and wind speed. We introduce a method using instrumented bicycles in a semi-controlled experiment to collect data describing the speed, power output, and heart rate of commuting bicyclists. Participants in two study populations (28 in Sweden and 29 in Germany) ride their bicycles equipped with sensors along designated routes during off-peak demand periods, enabling comparative analysis of different trip features. Results highlight significant inter-and intrapersonal variations in speed and power output along a trip. Approximately 80 percent of the variation in free riding speed and power output over a trip, and over both populations of bicyclists, is explained by gender, individual preferences, topography, curvature, crossing intersections, and wind speeds. Headwinds and uphills generally reduce speeds but bicyclists increase power output to partially offset these effects. Downhills lead to high speed variation and distinct tactical behaviors, such as braking, coasting, and accelerating. These findings underscore the complexity of bicycling behavior and quantify how bicyclists adapt to varying features of the trip.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER, 2025
Keywords
Bicycle traffic; Instrumented bicycle; Infrastructure design; Tactical behavior; Bicyclist behavior
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-220543 (URN)10.1016/j.jcmr.2025.100083 (DOI)001644090300001 ()2-s2.0-105014523742 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding Agencies|Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket); German Federal Office for Logistics and Mobility (BALM) [TRV 2022/96860, VB2110A+B]

Available from: 2026-01-20 Created: 2026-01-20 Last updated: 2026-02-11

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Pérez Castro, Guillermo

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