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Travel Demand Estimation and Network Supply Calibration for Large-Scale Urban Networks
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9034-8443
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Estimation of origin-destination (OD) vehicle flows and link capacity calibration are fundamental processes in transportation science, especially in the context of transport modelling and simulation. They ensure that transportation models accurately reflect real-world travel behaviour and network conditions.

This thesis develops a simulation-based optimization algorithm for network-wide link capacity calibration. To address the high dimensionality of large-scale networks, the algorithm is integrated with partial least squares (PLS) regression, which reduces the number of variables and enhances computational efficiency. The algorithm is evaluated on an urban road network in Stockholm, Sweden, where it demonstrates feasibility and higher efficiency compared to the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) method.

For large-scale OD estimation, this thesis advances the field in two main directions. First, it develops a data fusion framework that integrates multiple heterogeneous data sources, including mobile network data, link count observations, and turning proportion data. Second, it proposes several methods to enhance the computational efficiency of OD estimation in large urban networks. These include: (i) implementing data-driven network assignment (DDNA) using GPS data to construct a fixed OD–to–link mapping, thereby eliminating the need for iterative assignment within a bi-level optimization structure; (ii) applying non-negative matrix factorization (NNMF) for dimensionality reduction, which simplifies the optimization by reducing the number of variables; and (iii) developing a numerical solver based on an interior-point method that exploits structural properties of the assignment matrix, such as sparsity and linearity, to enhance computational performance. The proposed OD estimation methods are evaluated on real-world networks in central Stockholm and Norrköping, Sweden, demonstrating accurate and stable OD and link flow estimates with substantial gains in computational efficiency compared to solving the OD estimation problem without dimensionality reduction techniques or numerical solver improvement.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2026. , p. 50
Series
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations, ISSN 0345-7524 ; 2523
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-222956DOI: 10.3384/9789181185638ISBN: 9789181185621 (print)ISBN: 9789181185638 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-222956DiVA, id: diva2:2054833
Public defence
2026-05-22, K3, Kåkenhus,, Campus Norrköping, Norrköping, 09:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

Funding: The Swedish Transport Administration (TRV 2018/134731 and TRV 2021/22404)

Available from: 2026-04-22 Created: 2026-04-22 Last updated: 2026-04-22Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Network-Wide Calibration of Link Capacities for Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Network-Wide Calibration of Link Capacities for Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models
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2025 (English)In: Journal of Advanced Transportation, ISSN 0197-6729, E-ISSN 2042-3195, Vol. 2025, no 1, article id 8854907Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models are used in many transportation planning and traffic management scenario analyses today. The aim of the DTA model is to reproduce the pattern of vehicular movements. DTA models require inputs in terms of demand and capacity of the road network and are very challenging to calibrate for large urban networks. In this paper, a new network-wide calibration method for link capacities in urban networks is proposed. The method takes link flow observations for a subset of the links in the network to estimate the link capacities. The proposed method relies on partial least squares (PLS) regression and is demonstrated to be feasible and efficient in an urban road network (Stockholm, Sweden) compared to the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) method. Performance analysis of the proposed method for different amounts of link flow observations shows that it performs favorably for the cases in which only a small percentage of link flow observations is given.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
WILEY, 2025
Keywords
calibration; dynamic traffic assignment; partial least squares regression; road capacity
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-216928 (URN)10.1155/atr/8854907 (DOI)001526589800001 ()2-s2.0-105010603319 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding Agencies|Trafikverket [TRV 2018/134731, TRV 2021/22404]; Swedish Transport Administration

Available from: 2025-08-28 Created: 2025-08-28 Last updated: 2026-04-22
2. Consistent origin-destination and link flow estimation based on data-driven network assignment
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Consistent origin-destination and link flow estimation based on data-driven network assignment
2025 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-219949 (URN)
Conference
EWGT2024: EURO Working Group on Transportation
Available from: 2025-12-11 Created: 2025-12-11 Last updated: 2026-04-22
3. Time Slicing Origin-Destination Matrices Using Mobile Network Data, Link Counts and Vehicle Probe Data
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Time Slicing Origin-Destination Matrices Using Mobile Network Data, Link Counts and Vehicle Probe Data
2026 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2026
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-222488 (URN)10.1016/j.trpro.2026.02.117 (DOI)2-s2.0-105035502990 (Scopus ID)
Conference
EURO Working Group on Transportation Conference 2025 (EWGT 2025), 1-3 September 2025
Available from: 2026-04-07 Created: 2026-04-07 Last updated: 2026-05-08
4. Combining Data-driven Network Assignment and Non-negative Matrix Factorization forOrigin-Destination Estimation in Urban Networks
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Combining Data-driven Network Assignment and Non-negative Matrix Factorization forOrigin-Destination Estimation in Urban Networks
2025 (English)In: 2025 9th International Conference on Models and Technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems (MT-ITS), Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2025Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Origin-Destination (OD) matrices are essential inputs to both traffic planning and management. To enable traffic management decisions, the OD matrix needs to be estimated in the order of minutes, which is very challenging in many situations. However, new large-scale mobility data, such as vehicle probe data, in combination with computationally efficient estimation methods make it possible to estimate OD matrices sufficiently fast to enable traffic management decisions. In this paper, we propose a computationally efficient method that uses link count data and vehicle probe data, within a data-driven network assignment (DDNA) framework in combination with non-negative matrix factorization (NNMF), to estimate OD demand in urban networks. Historical data are used to construct a low-dimensional description of the OD estimation problem using non-negative matrix factorization. The method and the quality of the OD matrix estimated using the low-dimensional representation are evaluated on empirical data for central Stockholm, Sweden. The results demonstrate that the method provides a computationally fast technique to find an OD matrix that provides link flow estimates close to the link flow observations for both training and test sets.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2025
Keywords
origin-destination estimation, data-driven network assignment, non-negative matrix factorization
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-221392 (URN)10.1109/MT-ITS68460.2025.11223585 (DOI)2-s2.0-105025009516 (Scopus ID)9798331580636 (ISBN)9798331580643 (ISBN)
Conference
2025 9th International Conference on Models and Technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems (MT-ITS), Luxembourg, Luxembourg, 08-10 September 2025
Available from: 2026-02-19 Created: 2026-02-19 Last updated: 2026-04-22

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12345672 of 26
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