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System of Systems Modelling and Simulation for Aircraft Design: Integrating Agent-Based Simulation and Artificial Intelligence Techniques
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Fluid and Mechatronic Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2322-2402
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Wildfires are extremely difficult to manage and control. When they grow out of control, countless natural assets, properties, and even entire populations are destroyed. Over the years, allocation of resources and improvement of tactics have been focused on improving reactive capabilities. However, adopting a proactive approach can reduce reaction time and the necessary resources when action is needed for suppressing a fire.

Both the proactive and reactive phases of wildfire management involve numerous systems that need to work together with seamless communication and collaboration. When a heterogeneous collection of systems under different management communicates and collaborates towards a goal, it is beneficial to consider them as a whole System of Systems. This thesis takes a System of Systems approach to wildfire management and examines modelling and simulation considerations, with special interest in methods that can be used to obtain a refined design space for new systems. More specifically, new system requirements for the generation of new concepts of firefighting aerial vehicles.

Additionally, the thesis considers stakeholders’ needs, interests, concerns and viewpoints, which are necessary for developing high-level concepts of operations for the new systems to be included in the System of Systems. These topics are sometimes overlooked, yet necessary to keep communities engaged and to develop measures of effectiveness and performance that capture the value of different System of Systems combinations. All these considerations are aimed at contributing to the improvement of holistic requirement generation for product development of new aircraft.

Abstract [sv]

Skogsbränder är mycket svåra att hantera och kontrollera. När de växer utom kontroll kan många naturområden, byggnader och till och med hela samhällen förstöras. Under åren har de flesta insatser inom resursfördelning och taktik fokuserat på att förbättra hur vi agerar vid bränder. Att använda ett mer proaktivt angreppssätt kan dock minska både responstiden och mängden resurser som behövs när bränder måste bekämpas.

Både de proaktiva och reaktiva delarna av skogsbrandshantering omfattar många olika system som behöver arbeta tillsammans, med smidig kommunikation och samordning. När en mångsidig uppsättning system, som även hanteras av olika organisationer, samarbetar mot ett gemensamt mål är det användbart att betrakta dem som ett system av system. Denna avhandling ger ett system av system-perspektiv på skogsbrandshantering och studerar frågor relaterade till modellering och simulering, med särskilt fokus på metoder som hjälper till att definiera ett mer avgränsat designutrymme för nya system. Mer specifikt undersöks hur nya systemkrav kan definieras för att skapa nya koncept för brandbekämpningsflygplan.

Dessutom beaktar avhandlingen behov, intressen, farhågor och perspektiv hos de intressenter som är direkt involverade i verksamheten. Dessa överväganden är viktiga för att utveckla operationskoncept för nya system som ska ingå i ett större system av system sammanhang. Dessa aspekter tas inte alltid i åtanke, men de är nödvändiga för att hålla samhällen engagerade och för att utveckla mått på effektivitet och prestanda som speglar värdet av olika kombinationer av system av system. Tillsammans syftar dessa insatser till att förbättra hur övergripande krav definieras vid utvecklingen av nya flygplan.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2026. , p. 54
Series
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations, ISSN 0345-7524 ; 2516
Keywords [en]
System of systems, Agent-based modelling and simulation, Large-language models, Requirements, Firefighting
National Category
Embedded Systems Artificial Intelligence
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-223617DOI: 10.3384/9789181185355ISBN: 9789181185348 (print)ISBN: 9789181185355 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-223617DiVA, id: diva2:2057779
Public defence
2026-05-29, A1, A-building, Campus Valla, Linköping, 10:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

Funding: The COLOSSUS project, the Swedish Innovation Agency (VINNOVA) and The Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV).

Available from: 2026-05-06 Created: 2026-05-06 Last updated: 2026-05-06Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Environmental Agent-Based Modelling For A Firefighting System Of Systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Environmental Agent-Based Modelling For A Firefighting System Of Systems
2022 (English)In: 33rd Congress of the International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences, International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences , 2022, article id ICAS2022_0645Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In the field of System-of-Systems (SoS) engineering, the study of interactions between complex systems froma holistic point of view is important for finding emerging behaviours. To observe as many behaviours aspossible, especially when field testing is not a viable option, simulations play an important role in design spaceexploration and formulation for the Firefighting SoS framework. The presented work describes an AgentBased Model (ABM) approach for simulation of wildfire spread and its detection using collaborating vehicles:Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), or partly autonomous air- and land-based vehicles. Implemented in theopen-source software NetLogo, the usage of its Geographic Information System (GIS) extension allows tosimulate scenarios at specific locations. This ABM will be used in the future for Agent-Based Simulations(ABS) for the study of an SoS framework oriented to firefighting, including design and optimization of the SoS,constituent systems and their subsystems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences, 2022
Series
ICAS proceedings (Online), E-ISSN 2958-4647
Keywords
Systems of Systems, Agent-Based Simulation, Aerospace Systems, Cyber-Physical Modelling, Wildfire Detection
National Category
Vehicle and Aerospace Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-192091 (URN)2-s2.0-85159663453 (Scopus ID)9781713871163 (ISBN)
Conference
ICAS2022, Stockholm, Sweden, 4-9 September, 2022
Available from: 2023-03-01 Created: 2023-03-01 Last updated: 2026-05-06Bibliographically approved
2. Contextualised generative AI in system of systems modelling: an approach for firefighting aircraft requirements
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Contextualised generative AI in system of systems modelling: an approach for firefighting aircraft requirements
2025 (English)In: Aeronautical Journal, ISSN 0001-9240Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

The conceptual design of mission-tailored aircraft is increasingly shifting towards system of systems (SoS) perspectives that account for system interactions using a holistic view. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a common approach for analysing an SoS, but the behaviour of its agents tends to be defined by rigid behaviour trees. The present work aims to evaluate the suitability of a prompt-engineered large language model (LLM) acting as the Incident Commander (IC), replacing the fixed behaviour trees that govern the agents' decisions. The research contributes by developing a prompting framework for operational guidelines, constraints, and priorities to obtain an LLM commander within a wildfire suppression, SoS capable of replicating human decisions. By enabling agents in a simulation model with decision-making capabilities closer to those expected from humans, the commander's decisions and potential emergent patterns can be translated into more defined requirements for aircraft conceptual design (ACD) (e.g., endurance, payload, sensors, communications, or turnaround requirements). Results showed that an LLM commander facilitated adaptive and context-aware decisions that can be analysed via decision logs. The results allow designers to derive aircraft requirements for their specific roles from operational outcomes rather than a priori assumptions, linking SoS mission needs and ACD parameters.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, 2025
Keywords
aircraft conceptual design; agent-based modelling; firefighting; helicopter; large language models; requirements; system of systems analysis; unmanned aerial vehicle; wildfire management
National Category
Vehicle and Aerospace Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-219758 (URN)10.1017/aer.2025.10097 (DOI)001616448300001 ()2-s2.0-105022298430 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding Agencies|European Union Horizon Europe programme [101097120]; Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI) [22.00609]; Swedish Innovation Agency (VINNOVA); Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) [2019-05371]

Available from: 2025-12-04 Created: 2025-12-04 Last updated: 2026-05-06
3. Agent-Based Simulation and Ontology Integration for System-of-System Exploration
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Agent-Based Simulation and Ontology Integration for System-of-System Exploration
2023 (English)In: Proceedings of IDEAS 2022: Interdisciplinary Conference on Innovation, Design, Entrepreneurship, and Sustainable Systems / [ed] Luciana Pereira, Petter Krus, Magnus Klofsten, Springer, 2023, p. 13-23Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The increasing interest in System-of-Systems (SoS) for engineering applications are introducing new challenges that must be overcome at an early design stage. One of these is the integration of different tools that can be used to make predictions about a system under development and how these together can be used to predict SoS performances by comparison of parameter spaces.The purpose of this paper is therefore to illustrate how different SoS architectures can be modeled, simulated, and evaluated throughout different scenarios by different teams of researchers following a common workflow.An ontology is used as an overarching knowledge base where information about entities, such as scenario details, can be extracted and used for the setup of Agentbased Simulations(ABS) through a tool integration software acting as master that controls the correct execution of the defined workflow.The tool integration software also enables additional modelling capabilities, such as a Design of Experiments (DOE) definition for design space explorations, an Optimizer with different algorithms, user-defined Python scripts, etc. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2023
Series
Design Science and Innovation, ISSN 2509-5986, E-ISSN 2509-5994
National Category
Vehicle and Aerospace Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-192101 (URN)10.1007/978-3-031-29129-6_2 (DOI)9783031291289 (ISBN)9783031291296 (ISBN)
Conference
IDEAS2022, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 28-30 November, 2022
Available from: 2023-03-02 Created: 2023-03-02 Last updated: 2026-05-06

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1819202122232421 of 105
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