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Digital Twins and Explainable AI for Decision Support in Port and Maritime Operations
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6956-7695
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Ports are actively pursuing greater operational efficiency to handle the increasing global flow of goods, while simultaneously improving the energy efficiency of their operations to comply with new environmental regulations. As a result, innovation-leading ports have begun to recognize the potential of digital twins to monitor, coordinate, and optimize port processes, enabling energy savings and reductions in both costs and CO2 emissions. Although digital twins have gained significant momentum in other domains, such as smart manufacturing and aerospace, their adoption in ports remains challenging. This can be explained by the multi-stakeholder nature of ports and the high complexity of their interconnected processes, requiring decision-making across organizational boundaries.

Grounded in the port context, this thesis examines what constitutes a digital twin, proposes a framework to assess the maturity of existing port digital twins, and develops modeling and explainable AI-enabled decision support components for port and maritime operations. These components span seaside, quay, yard, and gate processes and can serve as building blocks of future port digital twin implementations. The thesis consists of six papers:

Paper 1 provides an in-depth literature review of digital twins across multiple domains and transfers insights from these to the port domain. The paper outlines how digital twins can enhance operational efficiency and support energy savings in ports. It also identifies the characteristics and design requirements that a port-specific digital twin must fulfill. Based on these findings, the paper proposes a tailored definition of a digital twin for the port domain.

Paper 2 discusses how digital twins’ maturity can be assessed within six maturity levels and presents milestones for their implementation. Notably, Interoperability is identified as the highest maturity level,as the numerous stakeholders and their respective digital twins must work together to reach a coordinated system of systems performance. Using this assessment demonstrates that only a few innovation-leading ports have developed sophisticated digital twinning solutions so far.

Paper 3 focuses on container retrieval, balancing two competing objectives: minimizing yard crane moves and adhering to tight truck scheduling. This reflects the conflicting perspectives of different stakeholders in the port context. The provided optimization model and heuristic algorithm demonstrate that addressing both problems simultaneously may result in reduced efficiency of the individual objectives. However, from a systems perspective, this approach leads to higher overall port efficiency.

Paper 4 examines quay cranes at the system level by developing an explainable AI framework to predict whether a quay crane will experience a breakdown during vessel operations. Using monitoring data, operational data, and weather observations, the study identifies how operational intensity, hoist-related warning patterns, and environmental conditions jointly influence the likelihood of a breakdown. This system-level predictive capability enhances situational awareness and enables early identification of disruptions.

Paper 5 builds on Paper 4 by focusing on the prediction of individual critical error events. Rather than assessing the overall likelihood of a breakdown, the model identifies which error type is likely to occur next and estimates its timing. Using eXtreme Gradient Boosting with lagged error sequences, operational data, and weather conditions, the study offers component-level insights that complement the systemlevel prediction in Paper 4 and support more targeted maintenance interventions.

Paper 6 expands the perspective beyond ports by analyzing fuel consumption in inland ferry operations using GPS-derived trip legs and journeys enriched with environmental data. Combining unsupervised clustering to uncover operational patterns with supervised learning and SHAP-based explainability, the study identifies operational speed as the dominant driver of fuel consumption and links consumption patterns to individual captains’ driving behavior. This contributes to maritime decision-making by enabling targeted interventions such as eco-driving strategies.

Together, these six papers contribute a conceptual grounding of port digital twins, provide a tool for their assessment, and provide modeling components to aid in port and maritime decision-making.

Abstract [sv]

 

Hamnar strävar aktivt efter ökad operativ effektivitet för att hantera det ökande globala varuflödet, samtidigt som de strävar efter att förbättra energieffektiviteten. Som ett resultat har ledande hamnar börjat se potentialen hos digitala tvillingar för att skapa överblick samt koordinera och optimera processer i hamnen. Målet med användningen av digitala tvillingar är energibesparingar samt minskning av kostnader och CO2-utsläpp. Medan digitala tvillingar har använts inom andra områden såsom tillverknings-, flyg- och rymdindustrin, har införandet i hamnar varit jämförelsevist långsamt. Detta kan förklaras, bland annat, av hamnens många olika involverade aktörer och den höga komplexiteten i de ofta sammanlänkade hamnprocesserna.

Därför fokuserar denna avhandling, med utgångspunkt i hamnkontexten, vad som utgör en digital tvilling, presenterar egenskaper för olika mognadsnivåer hos befintliga digitala tvillingar, och introducerar modellerings- och beslutsstödskomponenter baserade på förklarbar AI för hamn- och maritima operationer. Dessa komponenter omfattar kustnära processer, kajoperationer, yard-processer och gate-funktioner, och kan fungera som byggstenar i framtida digitala tvillingar för hamnar. Avhandlingen består av sex artiklar:

Artikel 1 bygger på en omfattande litteraturöversikt, inom vilken digitala tvillingar för olika områden studeras ingående för att överföra insikter från dessa till hamndomänen. Detta resulterar i en presentation av vad som utgör en hamns digitala tvilling och de krav som en hamns digitala tvilling måste uppfylla, tillsammans med en diskussion om hur digitala tvillingar i hamnar kan bidra till energibesparingar.

Artikel 2 presenterar ett ramverk för hur mognaden hos digitala tvillingar kan bedömas baserat på sex mognadsnivåer och presenterar milstolpar för deras implementering. Noterbart är att interoperabilitet identifieras som den högsta mognadsnivån, eftersom de många intressenterna och deras respektive digitala tvillingar måste koordineras för att nå en fungerande system-av-systemnivå. Genom att använda denna bedömning visar det sig att endast några få innovationsledande hamnar hittills har utvecklat sofistikerade digitala tvillinglösningar.

Artikel 3 fokuserar på containerupphämtning med hänsyn till två konkurrerande mål: att minimera energikrävande kranrörelser och att hålla planerade tider för lastbilar. Detta speglar de potentiellt motstridiga perspektiven hos olika intressenter i hamnkontexten. Den utvecklade optimeringsmodellen och algoritmen visar att gemensam hantering av båda dessa mål kan leda till minskad effektivitet för de respektive individuella målen, men ökad effektivitet från ett systemperspektiv för hamnen som helhet.

Artikel 4 studerar kajkranar på systemnivå genom att utveckla ett förklarbart AI-ramverk för att förutsäga om en kajkran kommer att drabbas av ett driftstopp under ett fartygsanlöp. Genom att använda övervakningsdata från kranarna, operativa data från terminalen och meteorologiska observationer identifierar studien hur operativ belastning, hoist-relaterade varningar och väderförhållanden gemensamt påverkar sannolikheten för driftstopp. Modellen förbättrar situationsmedvetenheten och möjliggör tidigare identifiering av störningar.

Artikel 5 bygger vidare på Artikel 4 genom att fokusera på prediktion av enskilda kritiska felhändelser. I stället för att uppskatta sannolikheten för ett övergripande driftstopp förutser modellen vilken feltyp som sannolikt inträffar härnäst och när detta sker. Med hjälp av eXtreme Gradient Boosting i kombination med sekvenser av tidigare fel, aktuella operativa data och väderförhållanden tillhandahåller studien komponentnivåinsikter som kompletterar systemnivåanalysen i Artikel 4 och möjliggör mer riktade och tidskritiska underhållsåtgärder.

Artikel 6 breddar avhandlingens fokus till maritima operationer genom att analysera bränsleförbrukning i färjetrafik baserat på GPS- data och kompletterande miljödata. Genom att kombinera oövervakad klustring för att identifiera återkommande operativa mönster med övervakade prediktionsmodeller och SHAP-baserad förklarbarhet visar studien att fartygshastighet är den dominerande faktorn bakom bränsleförbrukning. Analysen kopplar också bränsleförbrukningsmönster till individuella befälhavares beteenden och möjliggör riktade åtgärder, såsom eco-driving.

Tillsammans bidrar dessa sex artiklar med en konceptuell grund för digitala tvillingar i hamnar, ett verktyg för att bedöma mognaden hos befintliga lösningar samt ett antal modelleringskomponenter som kan stödja datadrivet och förklarbart beslutsfattande i både hamn- och maritima verksamheter.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2026. , p. 103
Series
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations, ISSN 0345-7524 ; 2527
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-224412DOI: 10.3384/9789181185737ISBN: 9789181185720 (print)ISBN: 9789181185737 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-224412DiVA, id: diva2:2064779
Public defence
2026-08-25, K3, Kåkenhus, Campus Norrköping, Norrköping, 13:00
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-06-02 Created: 2026-06-02 Last updated: 2026-06-02
List of papers
1. Digital Twins for Ports: Derived From Smart City and Supply Chain Twinning Experience
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Digital Twins for Ports: Derived From Smart City and Supply Chain Twinning Experience
2023 (English)In: IEEE Access, E-ISSN 2169-3536, Vol. 11, p. 71777-71799Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Ports are striving for innovative technological solutions to cope with the ever-increasing growth of transport, while at the same time improving their environmental footprint. An emerging technology that has the potential to substantially increase the efficiency of the multifaceted and interconnected port processes is the digital twin. Although digital twins have been successfully integrated in many industries, there is still a lack of cross-domain understanding of what constitutes a digital twin. Furthermore, the implementation of the digital twin in complex systems such as the port is still in its infancy. This paper attempts to fill this research gap by conducting an extensive cross-domain literature review of what constitutes a digital twin, keeping in mind the extent to which the respective findings can be applied to the port. It turns out that the digital twin of the port is most comparable to complex systems such as smart cities and supply chains, both in terms of its functional relevance as well as in terms of its requirements and characteristics. The conducted literature review, considering the different port processes and port characteristics, results in the identification of three core requirements of a digital port twin, which are described in detail. These include situational awareness, comprehensive data analytics capabilities for intelligent decision making, and the provision of an interface to promote multi-stakeholder governance and collaboration. Finally, specific operational scenarios are proposed on how the ports digital twin can contribute to energy savings by improving the use of port resources, facilities and operations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 2023
Keywords
Digital twin; IoT; smart city; smart port; supply chain
National Category
Computer Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-196955 (URN)10.1109/ACCESS.2023.3295495 (DOI)001035836900001 ()
Available from: 2023-08-29 Created: 2023-08-29 Last updated: 2026-06-02
2. Digital Twins' Maturity: The Need for Interoperability
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Digital Twins' Maturity: The Need for Interoperability
2024 (English)In: IEEE Systems Journal, ISSN 1932-8184, E-ISSN 1937-9234, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 713-724Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Digital twins have gained tremendous momentum since their conceptualization over 20 years ago, as more and more domains discover their value in driving efficiencies and reducing costs, while enabling technologies continue to advance. Originally aimed at product optimization and intelligent manufacturing, the range of applications for digital twins now spans entire complex, often highly interconnected systems such as ports, cities, and supply chains. Despite the increasing demand for sophisticated digital twinning solutions across all domains and scopes, their development is often still constrained by differing definitions, different understandings of their functional scope and design, and a lack of concrete methodology toward implementing a comprehensive digital twinning solution. Although there are already papers that evaluate the capabilities of existing digital twinning solutions on the basis of maturity levels, these usually consider the object to be twinned in isolation and are often domain-specific. With this article we address exactly this gap discussing how interoperability of digital twins can break physical boundaries of an isolated system, enabling system of systems joint optimization. We therefore consider interoperable digital twins to be the most mature twinning platforms, thus, we discuss in detail six digital twin maturity levels, departing from the interrelated contexts of ports, cities, and supply chains. Examples drawn from these domains demonstrate the need for interoperability toward optimizing processes and systems in realistic contexts, rather than in assumed isolation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 2024
Keywords
Digital twin (DT) maturity; interoperability; smart cities; ports; supply chains
National Category
Computer Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-200262 (URN)10.1109/JSYST.2023.3340422 (DOI)001129770400001 ()
Note

Funding Agencies|Trafikverket Sweden as part of the Triple F (MODIG-TEK)

Available from: 2024-01-19 Created: 2024-01-19 Last updated: 2026-06-02Bibliographically approved
3. Container Relocation and Retrieval Tradeoffs Minimizing Schedule Deviations and Relocations
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Container Relocation and Retrieval Tradeoffs Minimizing Schedule Deviations and Relocations
2024 (English)In: IEEE Open Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, E-ISSN 2687-7813, Vol. 5, p. 360-379Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Ports are striving to improve operational efficiency in the context of constantly growing volumes of trade. In this context, port terminal storage yard operation is key, since complexity and poor coordination lead to containers stacked without consideration of retrieval schedules, resulting in time- and energy-consuming reshuffling operations. This problem, known as the block relocation (and retrieval) problem (BRP), has recently gained considerable attention. Indeed, there are promising solutions to the BRP. However, the literature views the problem in isolation, optimizing one operational parameter for one of the many port stakeholders. This often leads to efficiency losses since port processes involve different stakeholders and port parts. In this work, we explicitly focus on scheduling trucks for pick-up for hinterland distribution. Appointments are often postponed in order to minimize reshuffling operations, leading to losses for the transport forwarders and decreasing the competitiveness of the port. We discuss the trade-off between minimizing container reshuffling operations while maintaining scheduled time windows for container retrieval. We describe the multi-objective optimization problem as a weighted sum of the two objectives. Given the complexity of the problem, we also present a greedy heuristic. Our results indicate that the number of schedule deviations can be reduced without significantly affecting the number of relocations compared to solutions that consider only the latter. Ideally, a weighting of 0.4 and 0.6 should be applied, reflecting schedule deviations and relocations, respectively, to achieve the highest joint optimization potential. This demonstrates that in complex environments, such as ports, with multiple interacting stakeholders and processes, coordination of solutions yields significant benefits.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 2024
Keywords
Containers; Seaports; Stacking; Logic gates; Stakeholders; Schedules; Container relocation problem; ports; optimization; digital twins; schedule deviations; schedule deviations
National Category
Computational Mathematics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-206956 (URN)10.1109/OJITS.2024.3413197 (DOI)001276383900002 ()
Note

Funding Agencies|Trafikverket Sweden as part of the Triple F (MODIG-TEK) Project [2019.2.2.16]

Available from: 2024-08-27 Created: 2024-08-27 Last updated: 2026-06-02
4. Understanding and predicting quay crane breakdowns using explainable AI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Understanding and predicting quay crane breakdowns using explainable AI
2026 (English)In: MARITIME TRANSPORT RESEARCH, ISSN 2666-822X, Vol. 10, article id 100152Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Quay cranes (QCs) play a vital role in ship-to-shore operations, enabling the seamless transfer of cargo between sea and land. However, increasing trade volumes require faster and more costeffective container handling, exerting significant pressure on QCs and leading to greater wear on critical components such as wires, hoists, and rope clamps. While operations research has explored maintenance scheduling to improve terminal performance, comparatively little work has examined how machine learning can exploit the growing volume of QC monitoring and operational data to predict breakdowns before they occur. This study contributes to this area by integrating terminal operations data, QC monitoring logs, and meteorological observations into a unified analytical framework. We employ explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), using both global and local SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify the operational and environmental factors most strongly associated with QC failures and to illustrate concrete, instance-level examples of how specific conditions contribute towards breakdowns. In parallel, we develop a robust machine learning pipeline built around nested cross-validation to assess the predictive capability of multiple classifiers for forecasting QC breakdowns. Our XAI analysis reveals that breakdown risk is closely linked to QC working time, the distribution of moves across simultaneously operating QCs, hoist overload and trolley alignment warnings, and adverse weather conditions. Among the evaluated models, LightGBM achieved the highest predictive accuracy, reaching up to 83% in identifying breakdown-prone scenarios. These findings demonstrate the feasibility and value of data-driven predictive maintenance for QCs, providing insights that support safer, more reliable, and more efficient terminal operations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER, 2026
Keywords
Quay cranes; Container terminal operations; Breakdown prediction; Predictive maintenance; Machine learning; Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI); Port performance
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-224236 (URN)10.1016/j.martra.2026.100152 (DOI)001768973200001 ()2-s2.0-105038341249 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding Agencies|Trafikverket Sweden [2019.2.2.16]

Available from: 2026-05-26 Created: 2026-05-26 Last updated: 2026-06-02
5. Predicting Error Types and Timing in Quay Crane Operations with eXtreme Gradient Boosting
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Predicting Error Types and Timing in Quay Crane Operations with eXtreme Gradient Boosting
2026 (English)In: Proceedings of the 20th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference, 2026Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Efficient port operations depend on the disruption free operation of quay cranes (QCs), which transfer containers between vessels and internal trucks. As global container through put rises, QCs face increased pressure, resulting in accelerated wear and tear. This can lead to QC downtime, which could interrupt the entire chain of port operations. Therefore, timely identification and prediction of critical errors is essential to enable timely maintenance to lower the risk of downtime. This study utilizes two years of QC monitoring data, enriched with weather conditions and terminal operational context, alongside twenty critical error events identified by the terminal operator. The goal is to predict the occurrence and timing of these critical errors through a three-stage machine learning model. The first stage predicts the type of the next critical event based on historical error patterns, warnings, and contextual data. The second stage estimates a time window in which the event will occur. The third stage refines timing predictions when more than one hour remains. The first two stages are formulated as multiclass classification problems, and the third as a regression task. All stages utilize eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are used to identify influential features. Results show that the model predicts the next critical error type with 83% accuracy and its immediacy with 71% accuracy. However, approximating the timing of events anticipated to occur beyond one hour remains challenging. These findings support proactive maintenance planning and operational adjustments, helping port operators mitigate disruptions and enhance QC reliability.

Keywords
eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Machine Learning, Predictive Maintenance, Quay Cranes, Resilient Port Operations
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-223585 (URN)
Conference
20th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference (SYSCON 2026), Halifax, Canada, April 6-9, 2026.
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration
Note

Research funding provided by The Swedish Transport Administration through the Triple F project MODIG-TEK (2019.2.2.16). 

Available from: 2026-05-05 Created: 2026-05-05 Last updated: 2026-06-02
6. Fuel efficiency in ferry services: GPS-based clustering and explainable AI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Fuel efficiency in ferry services: GPS-based clustering and explainable AI
2026 (English)In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, ISSN 1361-9209, E-ISSN 1879-2340, Vol. 157, article id 105403Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Enhancing fuel efficiency in ferry operations is essential for reducing emissions and advancing maritime sustainability. This study presents a data-driven framework that uses second-level GPS data enriched with operational and environmental variables to identify and explain fuel consumption patterns. Vessel movements are segmented into trip legs and journeys, and operational metrics such as speed, wind exposure, and fuel use are computed. A hybrid machine learning approach combines unsupervised clustering to detect recurring operational patterns with gradient boosting models and explainable methods to quantify feature impacts. The framework achieves strong performance, with a cluster classification accuracy of 94 percent and a coefficient of determination of 0.97 for fuel prediction. Results indicate that operational speed is the dominant driver of fuel consumption, while analysis of captain assignments reveals the influence of human factors. The proposed framework provides actionable insights for speed management and operational optimization, enabling cost-effective emission reductions in ferry services.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2026
Keywords
Fuel efficiency; Ferry operations; Maritime sustainability; Explainable artificial intelligence; Extreme gradient boosting; Hierarchical density-based clustering
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-224247 (URN)10.1016/j.trd.2026.105403 (DOI)001765014200001 ()2-s2.0-105037879285 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding Agencies|Interreg Central Baltic Programme [CB0300186]; European Union [CB0300186]; Trafikverket Sweden, Triple F (MODIG-TEK) [2019.2.2.16]

Available from: 2026-05-26 Created: 2026-05-26 Last updated: 2026-06-02

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