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Analysis of Road Incident Impact on Route Choice
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1588-3809
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5961-5136
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9142-8464
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Communications and Transport Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6405-5914
2025 (English)In: 2025 9th International Conference on Models and Technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems (MT-ITS), Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2025, p. 559-564Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Traffic incidents on roads, defined as non-recurring events causing a temporary reduction in capacity, causes congestion, injuries and public costs. Knowledge about how travelers change their behavior, in particular how they adjust their route, during incidents can give important insights into how to manage traffic when incidents occur. This paper aims to analyze the impact of incidents on route choice to enable decision support systems during incidents. Reported incidents and GPS trajectories from road vehicles in Stockholm are used in the analysis. We propose a method to map incidents to network links using speed data. We also analyze incident impact on speed reduction, route choice at the network level, and route choice at the local level. A route choice model based on GPS data is evaluated on incident scenarios. The result shows that 5-12% of the incidents have a significant impact on the route choice. The impact of an incident on route choice appears to be influenced by the type and location of the incident, its duration, and the extent of the resulting speed reduction. Up to 22% of the travelers change their route to alternatives not passing the incident. The route choice model tends to overestimate this number.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2025. p. 559-564
Series
International Conference on Models and Technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems (MT-ITS)
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-227626DOI: 10.1109/mt-its68460.2025.11223563ISI: 001835359000078Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105025034402ISBN: 9798331580636 (electronic)ISBN: 9798331580643 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-227626DiVA, id: diva2:2100514
Conference
9th International Conference on Models and Technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems-MT ITS-Annual, Luxembourg, Luxembourg, 08-10 September, 2025
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration, 2023/62202Available from: 2026-09-11 Created: 2026-09-11 Last updated: 2026-10-01
In thesis
1. Incident and Route Choice Analysis for Multimodal Traffic Management
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Incident and Route Choice Analysis for Multimodal Traffic Management
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Increasing travel demand and urbanization lead to road congestion. This results in lost productivity, reduced accessibility, and negative effects on the environment. An already congested transportation system is sensitive to disturbances, and even minor incidents can have major consequences in terms of queues and societal costs. Solutions to reduce congestion in the transport network include urban traffic management. Traffic management measures include regulating signal control, variable speed limits, and ramp metering, as well as distributing traveller information about travel times, congestion, and incidents through radio broadcasting, variable message signs, or navigation apps. A multimodal traffic management system utilizes several transportation modes within an integrated system to improve network performance and robustness. Large-scale mobility data from the public transport network and private vehicles enable a better understanding of travel patterns in multimodal networks. Traffic data can also be used to estimate traffic models that support the evaluation and prioritization of traffic management measures. For example, a route choice model can be used to identify travellers that are most impacted by an incident, and therefore need information about alternative routes or transportation modes.

The aim of the thesis is to utilize mobility data to improve the understanding and support of multimodal traffic management. The aim includes analysing incident impact on multimodal transportation networks, and developing and evaluating route choice models to use as a component in multimodal traffic management decision support systems. In the thesis, recent trends are explored in the transition towards more efficient road transport, emphasizing the role of monitoring and modelling traffic. Second, related literature is surveyed to identify the potential synergies and challenges of multimodal traffic management. Requirements of data and models in a decision support systems for multimodal traffic management are also identified. Based on these requirements, route choice behaviour in the road network is analysed using GPS trajectory data. Last, travel patterns during incidents are analysed to identify the impact of incidents on delay, demand, route choice and mode share. The thesis contributes to a better understanding of multimodal traffic management by integrating largescale passive mobility data into incident impact analysis and route choice modelling.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2026. p. 54
Series
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations, ISSN 0345-7524 ; 2540
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-227619 (URN)10.3384/9789181186505 (DOI)9789181186499 (ISBN)9789181186505 (ISBN)
Public defence
2026-10-16, K3, Kåkenhus, Campus Norrköping, Norrköping, 09:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-09-11 Created: 2026-09-11 Last updated: 2026-09-11Bibliographically approved

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Danielsson, AnnaGundlegård, DavidRingdahl, RasmusRydergren, Clas

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
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Language
  • de-DE
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