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Managing Supply Chain Complexity: A Study of Systems Integrators
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Industrial Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Over recent decades, developments such as outsourcing, globalisation, product variety, and customisation have increased the number, variety, and interdependence of elements in supply chains, often across more geographically dispersed settings, while recent disruptions have exposed how uncertainty and change make their behaviour less predictable. Supply chain complexity (SCC) is defined here as the condition arising from the interaction of structural and dynamic complexity across the supply, internal, and customer dimensions of a bounded supply chain. Structural complexity concerns the number, variety, and interdependence of elements, whereas dynamic complexity concerns uncertainty and change over time.

SCC is a defining condition for systems integrators, actors that coordinate supplier-side inputs, internal activities, and customer-side requirements into a functioning delivery arrangement. Research on SCC describes these structural and dynamic properties, but says less about translating description into judgement, that is, which forms of complexity support action, which constrain it, and how this should be reassessed as conditions change. The purpose of this thesis is to explore how supply chain complexity can be understood and managed by systems integrators across different operational conditions.

The thesis draws on four studies of renewable energy intermediaries, solar PV adoption, engineer-to-order defence procurement, and defence firm resilience. It develops the Complexity Value Compass (CVC), which connects profiling structural and dynamic complexity, placing the profile in a Cynefin-informed decision domain, and judging whether complexity should be absorbed, maintained, or reduced. Its central claim is that complexity is judged not by how much is present, but by whether it provides the capacity the prevailing response logic requires.

The thesis shows that complexity profiles do more than describe structural and dynamic complexity; they help assess what kind of decision context the profile creates. Structure matters because it shapes whether dynamic complexity remains contained within a dimension or spreads across the supply chain. By translating Cynefin into a supply-chain-specific interpretation logic, the thesis shows how such profiles can inform judgements about whether complexity should be absorbed, maintained, or reduced. The CVC therefore works as a compass for orientation rather than as a route plan prescribing a fixed path of action.

Abstract [sv]

Under de senaste decennierna har outsourcing, globalisering, produktvariation och kundanpassning gjort försörjningskedjor mer komplexa genom att öka antalet element, variationen mellan dem och deras inbördes beroenden, ofta över större geografiska avstånd. Samtidigt har senare tids störningar blottlagt hur osäkerhet och förändring gör försörjningskedjors beteende mindre förutsägbart. Försörjningskedjekomplexitet (SCC) definieras här som det tillstånd som uppstår ur samspelet mellan strukturell och dynamisk komplexitet över leverantörs-, intern- och kunddimensionerna i en avgränsad försörjningskedja. Strukturell komplexitet rör antalet element, deras variation och inbördes beroenden, medan dynamisk komplexitet rör osäkerhet och förändring över tid.

SCC är ett definierande villkor för systemintegratörer, aktörer som samordnar leverantörssidans insatser, interna aktiviteter och kundsidans krav till ett fungerande leveransupplägg. Forskningen om SCC beskriver dessa strukturella och dynamiska egenskaper, men säger mindre om hur beskrivning omsätts i bedömning, det vill säga vilka former av komplexitet som stödjer handling, vilka som begränsar den, och hur detta bör omprövas när förhållandena förändras. Avhandlingens syfte är att utforska hur försörjningskedjekomplexitet kan förstås och hanteras av systemintegratörer under olika operativa förhållanden.

Avhandlingen bygger på fyra studier om mellanhänder inom förnybar energi, adoption av solceller, inköp i engineer-to-order-projekt inom försvarsindustrin och resiliens i försvarsföretag. Den utvecklar Komplexitetsvärdekompassen (CVC), som knyter samman profilering av strukturell och dynamisk komplexitet, placering av profilen i en Cynefin-informerad beslutsdomän och bedömning av om komplexiteten bör absorberas, bibehållas eller reduceras. Dess centrala tes är att komplexitet inte bedöms utifrån hur mycket som vi finns, utan utifrån om den ger den kapacitet som den rådande responslogiken kräver.

Avhandlingen visar att komplexitetsprofiler inte bara beskriver hur strukturell och dynamisk komplexitet är fördelad, utan också hjälper till att bedöma vilken typ av beslutssituation profilen skapar. Strukturen påverkar om dynamisk komplexitet förblir avgränsad inom en dimension eller sprider sig mellan leverantörs-, intern- och kunddimensionerna. Genom att översätta Cynefin till en försörjningskedjespecifik tolkningslogik visar avhandlingen hur sådana profiler kan ligga till grund för bedömningen av om komplexitet bör absorberas, bibehållas eller reduceras. CVC fungerar därför som en kompass för situationsbedömning snarare än som en ruttplan som föreskriver en bestämd väg genom komplexiteten.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2026. , p. 110
Series
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations, ISSN 0345-7524 ; 2545
Keywords [en]
Supply chain complexity, Systems integration, Complexity management, Cynefin framework, Complexity Value Compass
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-227720DOI: 10.3384/9789181186949ISBN: 9789181186932 (print)ISBN: 9789181186949 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-227720DiVA, id: diva2:2102670
Public defence
2026-10-23, ACAS, A Building, Campus Valla, Linköping, 10:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-09-18 Created: 2026-09-18 Last updated: 2026-09-18Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. The value creation of diffusion intermediaries: Brokering mechanisms and trade-offs in solar and wind power in Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The value creation of diffusion intermediaries: Brokering mechanisms and trade-offs in solar and wind power in Sweden
2020 (English)In: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 251, article id 119640Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper focuses on diffusion-oriented innovation intermediaries (“diffusion intermediaries”), i.e. actors that function as brokers between technology adopters and the providers of resources needed to implement a new technology that is available more or less “off-the-shelf”. It investigates how such actors create value for adopters of new technologies as well as the trade-offs they face. An interview-based, qualitative survey of 14 Swedish consultants and project developers involved in solar PV and wind power reveals that diffusion intermediaries create value mainly through technology transfer and coordination of various actors throughout the planning and implementation of turnkey projects. There is evidence of trade-offs related to value capture as well as between different value dimensions (e.g. between quality control and legitimacy). These findings have important implications for the design of strategies and policies to leverage value creation and handle trade-offs to avoid negative effects on projects, companies, and the overall diffusion of cleaner technologies. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2020
Keywords
Innovation intermediary, Broker, Intermediation, Business model, Value capture
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-223776 (URN)10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119640 (DOI)000510823700125 ()2-s2.0-85076535924 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency
Available from: 2026-05-11 Created: 2026-05-11 Last updated: 2026-09-18
2. Intermediation services and adopter expectations and demands during the implementation of renewable electricity innovation – Match or mismatch?
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Intermediation services and adopter expectations and demands during the implementation of renewable electricity innovation – Match or mismatch?
2019 (English)In: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 214, p. 837-847Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To limit the irreversible consequences of global warming, it is crucial that new actors adopt renewable electricity technologies. This type of innovation is, however, complex to implement, which is the reason adopters often contract with intermediaries for support services, e.g., project developers or installers. Previous studies have underlined that it is difficult for intermediaries to provide services that fully satisfy different types of adopters. Contributing to the previous research on customer satisfaction of services and innovation intermediaries, this article identifies adopters' expectations when adopting photovoltaic technology and analyzes whether such expectations match with the services provided by intermediaries. A cross-case analysis of photovoltaic projects was performed. Results underline that motives and driving forces for adopting the technology influences how adopters select intermediaries as well as what they expect from the services provided by intermediaries. The study finally contributes with some recommendations for intermediary organizations that want to improve and adapt their services to match their clients’ expectations and demands. 

National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-223775 (URN)10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.01.034 (DOI)000458228300077 ()2-s2.0-85060348836 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 40642-1
Available from: 2026-05-11 Created: 2026-05-11 Last updated: 2026-09-18
3. Procurement for supply chain integration: responding to complexity in engineer-to-order defence projects
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Procurement for supply chain integration: responding to complexity in engineer-to-order defence projects
2025 (English)In: International Journal of Operations & Production Management, ISSN 0144-3577, E-ISSN 1758-6593, Vol. 45, no 13, p. 305-331Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

PurposeThis case study explores a high-tech defence company, focusing on procurement's mediating role in enabling supply chain integration (SCI) within complex engineer-to-order (ETO) projects. The study aims to examine how procurement strategically responds to varying complexities to facilitate internal and external integration.Design/methodology/approachAn exploratory cross-case study examined procurement's role in ETO SCI. Semi-structured interviews with procurement professionals and key stakeholders, including project managers, design engineers and other central project members, provided a multifaceted perspective. These interviews provided insights into high-tech ETO-projects' structural and dynamic complexities.FindingsThis study shows how procurement mediates SCI dimensions in response to varying structural and dynamic complexities. It develops a framework that links SCI responses to complexity types, offering a more nuanced understanding of procurement's integrative role in ETO-defence projects.Originality/valueAddressing research gaps in the way in which procurement can respond to structural and dynamic complexity to facilitate SCI in ETO defence projects, the paper introduces a supply chain and technical complexity matrix, a framework tailored to high technology defence ETO-projects, by contributing to the SCI, ETO and procurement literature streams. Specifically, it positions procurement at the nexus of SCI dimensions and conceptualises its role in mediating structural and dynamic complexities. The framework offers both theoretical insight into procurement's integrative function and practical guidance for managing integration challenges in complex project-based environments.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
EMERALD GROUP PUBLISHING LTD, 2025
Keywords
Engineer-to-order supply chain; Supply chain integration; Procurement; Complexity
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-220437 (URN)10.1108/IJOPM-02-2025-0155 (DOI)001632791600002 ()2-s2.0-105027460500 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-01-16 Created: 2026-01-16 Last updated: 2026-09-18
4. Supply chain resilience development in the defence industry: an AI-assisted content analysis of annual reports
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Supply chain resilience development in the defence industry: an AI-assisted content analysis of annual reports
2026 (English)In: Supply chain management, ISSN 1359-8546, E-ISSN 1758-6852, Vol. 31, no 7, p. 38-52Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

PurposeThis study aims to examine supply chain resilience (SCR) in the defence industry by mapping supply-side, demand-side and internal risk dimensions and corresponding mitigation strategies disclosed by seven publicly listed defence firms over 2014-2024. Drawing on Resource Dependence Theory (RDT), the study introduces the Strategic Risk and Resilience Roadmap (S3R) to explain how firms use bridging and buffering to manage evolving resource dependencies.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses a longitudinal qualitative content analysis of annual reports. It combines artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted extraction using large language models (LLMs), iterative prompt engineering and manual cross-validation against source reports to categorise risks, trace mitigation strategies and track shifts in disclosed mitigation postures across three disruption eras: Baseline (2014-2019), Pandemic (2020-2021) and Emerging Risk (2022-2024).FindingsFirms adapt SCR by rebalancing bridging and buffering as resource dependencies change across disruption eras. In the Baseline era, firms rely mainly on bridging to stabilise external dependencies; during the Pandemic, they scale buffering to protect continuity under acute shocks; from 2022, they combine to adopt a hybrid posture as constraints persist and multiply. Supplier capacity and availability dominate post-2022 and customer-side risk reorients from funding uncertainty to delivery-performance exposure during ramp-ups. S3R traces a path-dependent process in which shifts in resource dependence drive risk reassessment, posture recalibration and learning that strengthens SCR over time.Research limitations/implicationsWhile based on publicly available reports and AI-extracted content, the analysis may omit informal or undisclosed practices. Future research should triangulate findings with interviews and firm-level performance metrics to deepen the insights.Originality/valueThis paper applies a longitudinal, AI-assisted qualitative content analysis of annual reports across supply-side, demand-side and internal risk dimensions, and it extends RDT into SCR by revealing dynamic bridging and buffering cycles across three disruption eras. It offers theoretical insight into the temporal evolution of defence SCR and a practical, multi-dimensional diagnostic framework.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
EMERALD GROUP PUBLISHING LTD, 2026
Keywords
Risk; Defence industry; Supply chain resilience; Mitigation strategies; Large language model; AI method
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-222760 (URN)10.1108/SCM-10-2025-1017 (DOI)001733004900001 ()2-s2.0-105037585707 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-04-13 Created: 2026-04-13 Last updated: 2026-09-18

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34567896 of 15
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