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Determinants of Mortality and Postoperative Outcome after Major Surgery in Sweden
Linköping University, Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Division of Clinical Chemistry and Pharmacology. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Region Östergötland, Anaesthetics, Operations and Specialty Surgery Center, ANOPIVA US.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6408-0789
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Surgery is a fundamental component of modern healthcare, yet postoperative outcomes vary substantially between patients and may be influenced by factors extending beyond the surgical procedure itself. The overall aim of this thesis was to provide a comprehensive audit of the Swedish surgical population and investigate factors associated with postoperative outcomes, with particular emphasis on major surgery and long-term mortality.

Four observational studies were conducted; three used large-scale registry data and one a prospective multicentre cohort. The adult surgical population in Sweden was characterised using the Epidemiology of Perioperative Care in Sweden (EPeCS) database (Study I). Subsequent analyses investigated perioperative risk factors (Study II) and socioeconomic status (SES) (Study IV) after acute hip fracture surgery, and preoperative anaemia in major noncardiac surgery (Study III).

Study I included 1 319 048 individuals undergoing surgery between 2015 and 2020; 59.4% underwent major surgery, and crude 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality were 1.3% and 5.1%, respectively. Educational attainment and disposable household income were associated with several perioperative care processes and with postoperative mortality. For 1-year mortality, the lowest income quartile was associated with an aOR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.20–1.30) compared with the highest quartile after adjustment for patient, procedural, perioperative, and healthcare characteristics. In the multicentre cohort of 1060 patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery (Study III), lower preoperative haemoglobin was associated with adverse long-term outcomes, whereas perioperative RBC transfusion did not appear to mediate this relationship. In the hip fracture cohorts, educational attainment was identified as the SES factor most strongly associated with long-term mortality, with an adjusted difference in 2-year mortality of 6.3 percentage points between the lowest and highest educational groups and a corresponding attributable fraction of 14% (Study IV). Anaesthetic technique, surgical waiting time, and after-hours surgery were not independently associated with postoperative mortality after comprehensive risk adjustment (Study II). An association with hospital type observed in Study II was no longer evident after additional adjustment for socioeconomic factors in Study IV.

In conclusion, this thesis characterises an unselected national surgical population and demonstrates low postoperative mortality in Sweden in an international context. The findings challenge previously reported associations between several surgery-related factors and postoperative outcomes after hip surgery, highlighting the importance of comprehensive risk adjustment. Preoperative anaemia remains an important marker of long-term postoperative risk, an association that does not appear to be mediated by perioperative RBC transfusion. Finally, socioeconomic status was associated with several perioperative care processes and with postoperative mortality, highlighting the importance of considering socioeconomic circumstances when evaluating perioperative care and long-term outcomes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2026. , p. 69
Series
Linköping University Medical Dissertations, ISSN 0345-0082 ; 2051
Keywords [en]
Perioperative medicine, Perioperative epidemiology, Postoperative outcomes, Long-term mortality, Nationwide registers, Major surgery, Hip fracture surgery, Socioeconomic status, Health equity, Preoperative anaemia, Red blood cell transfusion
National Category
Surgery Epidemiology Anesthesiology and Intensive Care
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-228009DOI: 10.3384/9789181185867ISBN: 9789181185850 (print)ISBN: 9789181185867 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-228009DiVA, id: diva2:2104173
Public defence
2026-10-23, Berzeliussalen, building 463, Campus US, Linköping, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-09-23 Created: 2026-09-23 Last updated: 2026-09-24Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Determinants of mortality after hip fracture surgery in Sweden: a registry-based retrospective cohort study
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Determinants of mortality after hip fracture surgery in Sweden: a registry-based retrospective cohort study
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2018 (English)In: Scientific Reports, E-ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 8, article id 15695Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Surgery for hip fractures is associated with high mortality and morbidity. The causes of poor outcome are not fully understood and may be related to other factors than the surgery itself. The relative contributions of patient, surgical, anaesthetic and structural factors have seldom been studied together. This study, a retrospective registry-based cohort study of 14 932 patients undergoing hip fracture surgery in Sweden from 1st of January 2014 to 31st of December 2016, aimed to identify important predictors of mortality post-surgery. The independent predictive power of our included variables was examined using Cox proportional hazards modeling with all-cause mortality at longest follow-up as the outcome. Twelve independent variables were considered as interrelated exposures and their individual adjusted effect within a single model were evaluated. Kaplan-Meier curves were also generated. Crude mortality rates were 8.2% at 30 days (95% CI 7.7-8.6%) and 23.6% at 365 days (95% CI 22.9-24.2%). Of the 12 factors entered into the Cox regression analysis, age (aHR1.06, p amp;lt; 0.001), male gender (aHR 1.45, p amp;lt; 0.001), ASA-PS-class (ASA 1amp;2 reference; ASA 3 aHR 2.12; ASA 4 aHR 4.79; ASA 5 aHR 12.57 respectively, p amp;lt; 0.001) and PACU-LOS (aHR 1.01, p amp;lt; 0.001) were significantly associated with mortality at longest follow-up (up to 3 years). University hospital status was protective (aHR 0.83, p amp;lt; 0.001) in the same model. Age, gender and ASA-PS-class were strong predictors of mortality after surgery for hip fractures in Sweden. University hospital status and length of stay in the postoperative care unit were also identified as modifiable risk factors after multivariable adjustment and require confirmation in future studies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 2018
National Category
Cardiology and Cardiovascular Disease
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-152612 (URN)10.1038/s41598-018-33940-8 (DOI)000448109000020 ()30356058 (PubMedID)
Note

Funding Agencies|Region Ostergotland County Council

Available from: 2018-11-09 Created: 2018-11-09 Last updated: 2026-09-23
2. Effect of perioperative blood transfusion on preoperative haemoglobin levels as a risk factor for long-term outcomes in patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery: a prospective multicentre observational study
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Effect of perioperative blood transfusion on preoperative haemoglobin levels as a risk factor for long-term outcomes in patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery: a prospective multicentre observational study
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2024 (English)In: British Journal of Anaesthesia, ISSN 0007-0912, E-ISSN 1471-6771, Vol. 133, no 6, p. 1183-1191Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Preoperative anaemia and red blood cell (RBC) transfusions are associated with poorer clinical outcomes. It is unknown whether perioperative RBC transfusions mediate the relationship between preoperative haemoglobin levels and postoperative outcomes. Methods: This was a prospective observational study among patients aged >= 50 yr undergoing elective major noncardiac surgery from four Swedish hospitals. The co-primary outcomes were 1-yr major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) and all-cause mortality. The secondary outcome was a composite of 30-day mortality, MACCEs, acute kidney injury (AKI), pulmonary embolism, anastomotic leak, and postoperative infection. Mediation analyses were conducted with preoperative haemoglobin as the exposure and RBC transfusion as a mediator. Results: Among 1060 patients (mean age 70 [SD 9] yr; 472 [45%] women), 171 patients (16.1%) developed 1-yr MACCEs, and 105 patients (9.9%) died within 1 yr. Preoperative haemoglobin levels were significantly associated with both 1-yr MACCEs (b=-0.015, P=0.041) and all-cause mortality (b=-0.028, P<0.001). Volume of RBC transfusion was not directly associated with the outcomes and did not mediate the relationship between preoperative haemoglobin levels and 1-yr MACCEs (b=-0.001, P=0.451) or all-cause mortality (b=-0.002, P=0.293). For the secondary outcome, RBC transfusions had a significant mediating effect between preoperative haemoglobin and the composite 30-day outcome; however, no direct association was observed (b=0.006, P=0.554). Conclusions:<bold> </bold>Preoperative haemoglobin levels were significantly associated with 1-yr MACCEs and all-cause mortality. This effect was not mediated by perioperative RBC transfusions. Further research is needed to confirm these findings.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2024
Keywords
MACCE; mortality; noncardiac surgery; perioperative transfusion; preoperative haemoglobin
National Category
Surgery
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-210141 (URN)10.1016/j.bja.2024.09.007 (DOI)001360931000001 ()39419661 (PubMedID)
Note

Funding Agencies|Swedish Research Council [2019-02833]; South Eastern Sweden Research Council [746981, 712291]; Linkoping University-Region Otergotland ALF [687681, 792291]; European Society of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care Research Grant [ESAIC_GR_2018_MC]

Available from: 2024-12-03 Created: 2024-12-03 Last updated: 2026-09-23
3. Socioeconomic status and mortality after acute hip fracture surgery in Sweden: a registry-based nationwide epidemiologic study
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Socioeconomic status and mortality after acute hip fracture surgery in Sweden: a registry-based nationwide epidemiologic study
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2026 (English)In: British Journal of Anaesthesia, ISSN 0007-0912, E-ISSN 1471-6771, Vol. 137, no 4, p. 1136-1145Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background

The relationship between socioeconomic status and outcomes after hip fracture surgery remains unclear. We aimed to assess the association between individual-level socioeconomic status indicators and mortality after acute hip fracture surgery in Sweden.

Methods

Cross-linked registry-based cohort study of patients undergoing acute hip fracture surgery in Sweden 2015–20. Co-primary outcomes were 30-day and 2-yr all-cause mortality. Socioeconomic status was defined using four indicators: level of education, income, residential area, and receipt of social services. Attributable fractions were calculated to illustrate the potential population-level distribution of mortality differences across SES categories.

Results

There were 58 641 patients included (median age 83 [interquartile range 75–89] yr, 66.1% women). Crude 30-day and 2-yr mortalities were 7.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.7–8.1) and 35.3% (95% CI 34.9–35.7). Level of education showed the strongest association, with a stepwise gradient most pronounced for 2-yr mortality: adjusted odds ratio 1.16 (95% CI 1.08–1.24) for 10–12 yr, 1.20 (95% CI 1.09–1.32) for 9 yr, and 1.25 (95% CI 1.16–1.34) for <9 yr vs >12 yr (all P<0.001). The attributal fraction for 2-yr mortality was 14.0% (standard error 0.022), with an increase in absolute risk of 6.3% (95% CI 4.3–8.2) for >12 yr vs <9 yr of education. Other socioeconomic status factors, except residential area, were also associated with mortality, although less substantially.

Conclusions

Individual socioeconomic status was associated with short- and long-term death after acute hip fracture surgery in Sweden, with education showing the strongest relationship. These findings support consideration of individual-level socioeconomic factors in perioperative hip fracture care at the population level.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2026
Keywords
attributable risk, epidemiology, health inequalities, hip fracture surgery, postoperative mortality, risk factors, social determinants of health, socioeconomic status
National Category
Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-228005 (URN)10.1016/j.bja.2026.06.026 (DOI)001880668900001 ()42557157 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-105046390325 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding: Futurum – The Academy for Health and Care, Region Jönköping County (FUTURUM-1004435); Linköping Society of Medicine; ALF grant, Region Östergötland (RÖ-1000943 for the Epidemiology of Perioperative Care in Sweden project).

Available from: 2026-09-23 Created: 2026-09-23 Last updated: 2026-10-09Bibliographically approved

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Åhman, Rasmus

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12345673 of 15
CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
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