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Equity return predictability, its determinants, and profitable trading strategies
Univ Newcastle, Australia.
Coventry Univ, England.
Trinity Business Sch, Ireland.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
2021 (English)In: Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0277-6693, E-ISSN 1099-131X, Vol. 40, no 1, p. 162-186Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper explains cross-market variations in the degree of return predictability using the extreme bounds analysis (EBA). The EBA addresses model uncertainty in identifying robust determinant(s) of cross-sectional return predictability. Additionally, the paper develops two profitable trading strategies based on return predictability evidence. The result reveals that among the 13 determinants of the cross-sectional variation of return predictability, only value of stock traded (a measure of liquidity) is found to have robust explanatory power by Leamers (1985) EBA. However, Sala-i-Martins (1997) EBA reports that value of stock traded, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, level of information and communication technology (ICT) development, governance quality, and corruption perception are robust determinants. We further find that a strategy of buying (selling) aggregate market portfolios of the countries with the highest positive (negative) return predictability statistic in the past 24 months generates statistically significant positive returns in the subsequent 3 to 12 months. In the individual country level, a trading rule of buying (selling) the respective countrys aggregate market portfolio, when the return predictability statistic turns out positive (negative), outperforms the conventional buy-and-hold strategy for many countries.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
WILEY , 2021. Vol. 40, no 1, p. 162-186
Keywords [en]
Extreme bounds analysis; Fifty equity markets; Return predictability; Trading strategies
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-168567DOI: 10.1002/for.2712ISI: 000546294800001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-168567DiVA, id: diva2:1461838
Note

Funding Agencies|Linkoping University, Sweden; Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation

Available from: 2020-08-27 Created: 2020-08-27 Last updated: 2022-10-24

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
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