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The dynamics and elasticities on the US natural gas market. A Bayesian Structural VAR analysis
Coll Econ Anal, Poland.
Coll Econ Anal, Poland.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Economics. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
2021 (English)In: Energy Economics, ISSN 0140-9883, E-ISSN 1873-6181, Vol. 103, article id 105526Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Natural gas is an important source of energy in the global economy, hence understanding the drivers of its prices is of significant interest for economic agents. This paper investigates the role of structural shocks for the dynamics of the U.S. natural gas market within the Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression framework applied by Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a, AER), to the crude oil market. This approach provides clear intuition for the identification strategy and allows us to correctly estimate the short-term price elasticity of natural gas supply and demand. Our results indicate that the former is low, whereas the latter is higher than the average estimate in the literature. We also show that market specific demand shocks explain a dominant fraction of natural gas prices variability, while the contribution of supply, aggregate economic activity and inventory shocks is important only during specific market events such as the recent outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we illustrate how changes in supply in the era of shale gas revolution contributed to the dynamics of natural gas prices.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER , 2021. Vol. 103, article id 105526
Keywords [en]
Natural gas market; Structural VAR; Impulse-response function; Bayesian inference
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-180516DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105526ISI: 000704529900010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-180516DiVA, id: diva2:1605574
Note

Funding Agencies|National Science Centre (Poland)National Science Centre, Poland [2020/39/B/HS4/00366]; University of Jyvaskyla, Finland; ERIA

Available from: 2021-10-25 Created: 2021-10-25 Last updated: 2021-10-25

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf