Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scaleShow others and affiliations
2020 (English)In: Interface Focus, ISSN 2042-8898, E-ISSN 2042-8901, Vol. 10, no 1, article id 20190054Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a fast-spreading viral infection that can produce large and costly outbreaks in livestock populations. Transmission occurs at multiple spatial scales, as can the actions used to control outbreaks. The US cattle industry is spatially expansive, with heterogeneous distributions of animals and infrastructure. We have developed a model that incorporates the effects of scale for both disease transmission and control actions, applied here in simulating FMD outbreaks in US cattle. We simulated infection initiating in each of the 3049 counties in the contiguous US, 100 times per county. When initial infection was located in specific regions, large outbreaks were more likely to occur, driven by infrastructure and other demographic attributes such as premises clustering and number of cattle on premises. Sensitivity analyses suggest these attributes had more impact on outbreak metrics than the ranges of estimated disease parameter values. Additionally, although shipping accounted for a small percentage of overall transmission, areas receiving the most animal shipments tended to have other attributes that increase the probability of large outbreaks. The importance of including spatial and demographic heterogeneity in modelling outbreak trajectories and control actions is illustrated by specific regions consistently producing larger outbreaks than others. © 2019 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Royal Society Publishing , 2020. Vol. 10, no 1, article id 20190054
Keywords [en]
Agriculture, Animals, Disease control, Diseases, Sensitivity analysis, Ships, Analyse, Control actions, Culling, Foot and mouth disease, Geographical scale, Movement ban, Regional differences, Sensitivity, Simulation, Viral infections, Population statistics, Analysis, Movement bans, Vaccination
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-188255DOI: 10.1098/rsfs.2019.0054ISI: 000565047000005Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85077448915OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-188255DiVA, id: diva2:1693804
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