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Dynamic Mixture of Experts Models for Online Prediction
Stockholm Univ, Sweden; Ericsson, Sweden.
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, The Division of Statistics and Machine Learning. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Stockholm Univ, Sweden.
Univ New South Wales, Australia.
2023 (English)In: Technometrics, ISSN 0040-1706, E-ISSN 1537-2723, Vol. 65, no 2, p. 257-268Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A mixture of experts models the conditional density of a response variable using a mixture of regression models with covariate-dependent mixture weights. We extend the finite mixture of experts model by allowing the parameters in both the mixture components and the weights to evolve in time by following random walk processes. Inference for time-varying parameters in richly parameterized mixture of experts models is challenging. We propose a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for online inference and based on a tailored proposal distribution built on ideas from linear Bayes methods and the EM algorithm. The method gives a unified treatment for mixtures with time-varying parameters, including the special case of static parameters. We assess the properties of the method on simulated data and on industrial data where the aim is to predict software faults in a continuously upgraded large-scale software project.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC , 2023. Vol. 65, no 2, p. 257-268
Keywords [en]
Bayesian sequential inference; Linear Bayes; Mixture models; Particle filtering; Sequential Monte Carlo
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-190621DOI: 10.1080/00401706.2022.2146755ISI: 000893857500001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-190621DiVA, id: diva2:1720352
Available from: 2022-12-19 Created: 2022-12-19 Last updated: 2023-11-09Bibliographically approved

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Villani, Mattias

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