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Avoiding Under- and Overrecruitment in Behavioral Intervention Trials Using Bayesian Sequential Designs: Tutorial
Linköping University, Department of Health, Medicine and Caring Sciences, Division of Society and Health. Linköping University, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8678-1164
2022 (English)In: Journal of Medical Internet Research, E-ISSN 1438-8871, Vol. 24, no 12, article id e40730Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Reducing research waste and protecting research participants from unnecessary harm should be top priorities for researchers studying interventions. However, the traditional use of fixed sample sizes exposes trials to risks of under- and overrecruitment by requiring that effect sizes be determined a priori. One mitigating approach is to adopt a Bayesian sequential design, which enables evaluation of the available evidence continuously over the trial period to decide when to stop recruitment. Target criteria are defined, which encode researchers’ intentions for what is considered findings of interest, and the trial is stopped once the scientific question is sufficiently addressed. In this tutorial, we revisit a trial of a digital alcohol intervention that used a fixed sample size of 2129 participants. We show that had a Bayesian sequential design been used, the trial could have ended after collecting data from approximately 300 participants. This would have meant exposing far fewer individuals to trial procedures, including being allocated to the waiting list control condition, and the evidence from the trial could have been made public sooner.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Toronto, ON, Canada: JMIR Publications, Inc. , 2022. Vol. 24, no 12, article id e40730
Keywords [en]
Bayesian sequential design; behavioural intervention; digital alcohol intervention; effect size; participant recruitment; randomized controlled trial; research methods; research participants; sample size; trial procedure; trial recruitment
National Category
Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-191921DOI: 10.2196/40730ISI: 000965402800001PubMedID: 36525297Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85144588521OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-191921DiVA, id: diva2:1738832
Note

Funding: Alcohol Research Council of the Swedish Alcohol Retailing Monopoly [DNR 2019-0056, DNR 2020-0043]

Available from: 2023-02-23 Created: 2023-02-23 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved

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Bendtsen, Marcus

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Citation style
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