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Bayesian optimization of hyperparameters from noisy marginal likelihood estimates
Stockholm Univ, Sweden; Stockholm Univ, Sweden.
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, The Division of Statistics and Machine Learning. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Stockholm Univ, Sweden.
Stockholm Univ, Sweden; Sveriges Riksbank, Sweden.
2023 (English)In: Journal of applied econometrics (Chichester, England), ISSN 0883-7252, E-ISSN 1099-1255, Vol. 38, no 4, p. 577-595Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is an iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially updated by new function evaluations. We propose a novel Bayesian optimization framework for situations where the user controls the computational effort and therefore the precision of the function evaluations. This is a common in econometrics where the marginal likelihood is often computed by Markov chain Monte Carlo or importance sampling methods. The new acquisition strategy gives the optimizer the option to explore the function with cheap noisy evaluations and therefore find the optimum faster. The method is applied to estimating the prior hyperparameters in two popular models on US macroeconomic time series data: the steady-state Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) and the time-varying parameter BVAR with stochastic volatility.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
WILEY , 2023. Vol. 38, no 4, p. 577-595
Keywords [en]
acquisition strategy; Bayesian optimization; MCMC; steady-state BVAR; stochastic volatility; US macro
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-192482DOI: 10.1002/jae.2961ISI: 000939709100001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-192482DiVA, id: diva2:1744872
Available from: 2023-03-21 Created: 2023-03-21 Last updated: 2024-03-18Bibliographically approved

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Villani, Mattias

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  • de-DE
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  • en-US
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  • nn-NB
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Output format
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  • asciidoc
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