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Evaluation of Differentially Constrained Motion Models for Graph-Based Trajectory Prediction
Linköping University, Department of Electrical Engineering, Vehicular Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9075-7477
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, The Division of Statistics and Machine Learning. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8201-0282
Linköping University, Department of Electrical Engineering, Vehicular Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1320-032x
Linköping University, Department of Electrical Engineering, Vehicular Systems. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7349-1937
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

 Given their adaptability and encouraging performance, deep-learning models are becoming standard for motion prediction in autonomous driving. However, with great flexibility comes a lack of interpretability and possible violations of physical constraints.  Accompanying these data-driven methods with differentially-constrained motion models to provide physically feasible trajectories is a promising future direction. The foundation for this work is a previously introduced graph-neural-network-based model, MTP-GO.  The neural network learns to compute the inputs to an underlying motion model to provide physically feasible trajectories. This research investigates the performance of various motion models in combination with numerical solvers for the prediction task. The study shows that simpler models, such as low-order integrator models, are preferred over more complex ones, e.g., kinematic models, to achieve accurate predictions. Further, the numerical solver can have a substantial impact on performance, advising against commonly used first-order methods like Euler forward. Instead, a second-order method like Heun's can significantly improve predictions.

National Category
Computer graphics and computer vision
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-193061OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-193061DiVA, id: diva2:1750143
Funder
ELLIIT - The Linköping‐Lund Initiative on IT and Mobile CommunicationsWallenberg AI, Autonomous Systems and Software Program (WASP)Available from: 2023-04-12 Created: 2023-04-12 Last updated: 2025-02-07
In thesis
1. Data-Driven Interaction-Aware Behavior Prediction for Autonomous Vehicles
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Data-Driven Interaction-Aware Behavior Prediction for Autonomous Vehicles
2023 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Future progress toward the realization of fully self-driving vehicles still re-quires human-level social compliance, arguably dependent on the ability to accurately forecast the behavior of surrounding road users. Due to the inter-connected nature of traffic participants, in which the actions of one agent can significantly influence the decisions of others, the development of behavior pre-diction methods is crucial for achieving resilient autonomous motion planning. As high-quality data sets become more widely available and many vehicles already possess significant computing power, the possibility of adopting a data-driven approach for motion prediction is increasing. 

The first contribution is the design of an intention-prediction model based on autoencoders for highway scenarios. Specifically, the method targets the problem of data imbalance in highway traffic data using ensemble methods and data-sampling techniques. The study shows that commonly disregarded information holds potential use for improved prediction performance and the importance of dealing with the data imbalance problem. 

The second contribution is the development of a probabilistic motion pre-diction framework. The framework is used to evaluate various graph neural network architectures for multi-agent prediction across various traffic scenarios. The graph neural network computes the inputs to an underlying motion model, parameterized using neural ordinary differential equations. The method additionally introduces a novel uncertainty propagation approach by combining Gaussian mixture modeling and extended Kalman filtering techniques. 

The third contribution is attributed to the investigation of combing data-driven models with motion modeling and methods for numerical integration. The study illustrates that improved prediction performance can be achieved by the inclusion of differential constraints in the model, but that the choice of motion model as well as numerical solver can have a large impact on the prediction performance. It is also shown that the added differential constraints improve extrapolation properties compared to complete black-box approaches. 

The thesis illustrates the potential of data-driven methods and their usability for the behavior prediction problem. Still, there are additional challenges and interesting questions to investigate—the main one being the investigation of their use in autonomous navigation frameworks. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Linköping University Electronic Press, 2023. p. 38
Series
Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Licentiate Thesis, ISSN 0280-7971 ; 1960
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-193083 (URN)10.3384/9789180751797 (DOI)9789180751780 (ISBN)9789180751797 (ISBN)
Presentation
2023-05-12, Ada Lovelace, B-building, Campus Valla, Linköping, 10:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

Funding agencies: This research was supported by the Strategic Research Area at Linköping-Lund in Information Technology (ELLIIT), and the Wallenberg AI, Autonomous Sys-tems and Software Program (WASP) funded by the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation.

Available from: 2023-04-13 Created: 2023-04-13 Last updated: 2024-04-30Bibliographically approved

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Westny, TheodorOskarsson, JoelOlofsson, BjörnFrisk, Erik

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