liu.seSearch for publications in DiVA
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Modeling stock-oil co-dependence with Dynamic Stochastic MIDAS Copula models
School of Business - Örebro University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0682-8584
Department of Quantitative Methods, CUNEF Universidad, Spain.
2023 (English)In: Energy Economics, ISSN 0140-9883, E-ISSN 1873-6181, Vol. 124, article id 106738Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Stock and oil relationship is usually time-varying and depends on the current economic conditions. In this study, we propose a new Dynamic Stochastic Mixed data sampling (DSM) copula model, that decomposes the stock-oil relationship into a short-run dynamic stochastic component and a long-run component, governed by related macro-finance variables. Inference and prediction is carried out using a novel Bayesian estimation strategy, that can efficiently estimate the latent states and delivers an estimate of the log marginal likelihood used for model comparison. We find that inflation/interest rate, uncertainty and liquidity factors are the main drivers of the long-run co-dependence. We show that the multi-step-ahead variance covariance forecasts constructed using the proposed approach are closer to the true values as compared to the benchmark model. Finally, investment portfolios, based on the proposed DSM copula model, are more accurate and produce better economic outcomes as compared to other alternatives.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2023. Vol. 124, article id 106738
Keywords [en]
Copula, Hedging, MIDAS, Portfolio, SMC, Stock-oil
National Category
Economics Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-197162DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106738ISI: 001034215900001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85162242472OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-197162DiVA, id: diva2:1791469
Available from: 2023-08-25 Created: 2023-08-25 Last updated: 2025-02-14

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Nguyen, Hoang

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Nguyen, Hoang
In the same journal
Energy Economics
EconomicsProbability Theory and Statistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 81 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf