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The performance of emerging markets during the Fed's easing and tightening cycles: A cross-country resilience analysis
Univ Southern Calif, CA 90089 USA.
Asian Dev Bank, Philippines.
Asian Dev Bank, Philippines.
Univ Paris 08, France.
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2024 (English)In: Journal of International Money and Finance, ISSN 0261-5606, E-ISSN 1873-0639, Vol. 148, article id 103169Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We investigate the determinants of emerging markets performance during five U.S. Federal Reserve monetary tightening and easing cycles during 2004-2023. We study how macroeconomic and institutional conditions of an Emerging Market (EM) at the beginning of a cycle explain EM resilience during each cycle. More specifically, our baseline cross-sectional regressions examine how those conditions affect three measures of resilience, namely bilateral exchange rate against the USD, exchange rate market pressure, and country-specific Morgan Stanley Capital International index (MSCI). We then stack the five cross-sections to build a panel database to investigate potential asymmetry between tightening versus easing cycles. Our evidence indicates that macroeconomic and institutional variables are associated with EM performance, determinants of resilience differ during tightening versus easing cycles, and institutions matter more during difficult times. Our specific findings are largely consistent with economic intuition. For instance, we find that current account balance, international reserves, and inflation are all important determinants of EM resilience.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ELSEVIER SCI LTD , 2024. Vol. 148, article id 103169
Keywords [en]
Monetary policy cycle; Emerging market; Resilience; Macroeconomic fundamentals; Federal Reserve
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-207416DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103169ISI: 001302551100001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-207416DiVA, id: diva2:1896142
Available from: 2024-09-09 Created: 2024-09-09 Last updated: 2024-09-09

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Uddin, Gazi Salah
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Citation style
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Output format
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