liu.seSearch for publications in DiVA
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Counterfactually-Equivalent Structural Causal Modelling Using Causal Graphical Normalizing Flows
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, The Division of Statistics and Machine Learning. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering. (Causality)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3329-5533
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, The Division of Statistics and Machine Learning. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, The Institute for Analytical Sociology, IAS. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
2024 (English)In: 12th International Conference on Probabilistic Graphical Models / [ed] Johan Kwisthout, Silja Renooij, JMLR-JOURNAL MACHINE LEARNING RESEARCH , 2024, Vol. 246, p. 164-181Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed) [Artistic work]
Abstract [en]

Recent research has highlighted the properties that deep-learning inspired causal models such as Deep-Structural Causal Model (Deep-SCM), Causal Autoregressive Flow (CAREFL) and Causal-Graphical Normalizing Flow (c-GNF) should exhibit to guarantee observational and interventional distribution equivalence with the true underlying causal data generating process (DGP), making them suitable for estimating average causal effect (ACE) or conditional ACE (CACE). However, for accurate individual-level causal effect (ICE) estimation and personalized treatment/public-policy formulation, it is crucial to ensure counterfactual equivalence between these models and the DGP. Firstly, we demonstrate that c-GNFs provide counterfactual equivalence under certain monotonicity assumption of the DGP, enabling precise ICE estimation and personalized treatment/public-policy analysis. Secondly, using this counterfactual equivalence of c-GNFs, we perform a counterfactual analysis and personalized public-policy analysis of the impact of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs on child poverty using large-scale real-world observational data. Our results indicate a reduction in child poverty due to the IMF program at different personalization granularities. Our study also performs sensitivity analyses to assess potential threats to the unconfoundedness assumption and estimates ACE bounds and the E-value. This illustrates the potential of c-GNFs for causal and counterfactual inference in fields such as social, natural, and medical sciences.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
JMLR-JOURNAL MACHINE LEARNING RESEARCH , 2024. Vol. 246, p. 164-181
Series
Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, ISSN 2640-3498
Keywords [en]
Counterfactuals, Normalizing Flows, Structural Causal Model, IMF, Child Poverty
National Category
Sociology (excluding Social Work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology)
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-207827ISI: 001347210900010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-207827DiVA, id: diva2:1900881
Conference
12th International Conference on Probabilistic Graphical Models, Nijmegen, Netherlands, September 11 - 13, 2024
Available from: 2024-09-25 Created: 2024-09-25 Last updated: 2024-12-10Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Paper

Authority records

Balgi, SourabhPeña, Jose M.Daoud, Adel

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Balgi, SourabhPeña, Jose M.Daoud, Adel
By organisation
The Division of Statistics and Machine LearningFaculty of Science & EngineeringThe Institute for Analytical Sociology, IASFaculty of Arts and Sciences
Sociology (excluding Social Work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology)

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 224 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • oxford
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf