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ρ-GNF: A Copula-based Sensitivity Analysis to Unobserved Confounding Using Normalizing Flows
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, The Division of Statistics and Machine Learning. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering. (Causality)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3329-5533
Linköping University, Department of Computer and Information Science, The Division of Statistics and Machine Learning. Linköping University, Faculty of Science & Engineering.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, The Institute for Analytical Sociology, IAS. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
2024 (English)In: 12th International Conference on Probabilistic Graphical Models / [ed] Johan Kwisthout, Silja Renooij, JMLR-JOURNAL MACHINE LEARNING RESEARCH , 2024, Vol. 246, p. 20-37Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed) [Artistic work]
Abstract [en]

We propose a novel sensitivity analysis to unobserved confounding in observational studies using copulas and normalizing flows. Using the idea of interventional equivalence of structural causal models, we develop ρρ-GNF (ρρ-graphical normalizing flow), where ρ∈[−1,+1]ρ∈[−1,+1] is a bounded sensitivity parameter. This parameter represents the back-door non-causal association due to unobserved confounding, and which is encoded with a Gaussian copula. In other words, the ρρ-GNF enables scholars to estimate the average causal effect (ACE) as a function of ρρ, while accounting for various assumed strengths of the unobserved confounding. The output of the ρρ-GNF is what we denote as the ρcurveρcurve that provides the bounds for the ACE given an interval of assumed ρρ values. In particular, the ρcurveρcurve enables scholars to identify the confounding strength required to nullify the ACE, similar to other sensitivity analysis methods (e.g., the E-value). Leveraging on experiments from simulated and real-world data, we show the benefits of ρρ-GNF. One benefit is that the ρρ-GNF uses a Gaussian copula to encode the distribution of the unobserved causes, which is commonly used in many applied settings. This distributional assumption produces narrower ACE bounds compared to other popular sensitivity analysis methods.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
JMLR-JOURNAL MACHINE LEARNING RESEARCH , 2024. Vol. 246, p. 20-37
Series
Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, ISSN 2640-3498
Keywords [en]
Copula, Normalizing Flows, Sensitivity Analysis
National Category
Computer Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-207828ISI: 001347210900002OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-207828DiVA, id: diva2:1900890
Conference
12th International Conference on Probabilistic Graphical Models, Nijmegen, September 11 - 13, 2024
Available from: 2024-09-25 Created: 2024-09-25 Last updated: 2024-12-10Bibliographically approved

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Balgi, SourabhPeña, Jose M.Daoud, Adel

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The Division of Statistics and Machine LearningFaculty of Science & EngineeringThe Institute for Analytical Sociology, IASFaculty of Arts and Sciences
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